To: McNabb Brothers who wrote (19205 ) 10/27/1997 11:36:00 AM From: Chuzzlewit Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
Hank, as a former s/h in OXHP and one who's has followed this stock and the group closely I'd like to make a few comments about the differences between OXHP and DELL. Starting several months ago news stories began appearing regularly indicating that that HMO's were coming under increasing magin pressures due to greater than expected costs and increasing competition. Since the fundamentals (both long-term and short-term) had turned negative on the group, I exited OXHP with a handsome profit. This is clearly not the case with the box makers. The latest reports indicate that computer sales are up nicely both domestically and world-wide, with CPQ and DELL making large gains in market share based on units shipped. Decreasing component costs may actually improve margins for DELL since it is in the high end of this market. This is in sharp contrast to OXHP where costs were increasing. You may argue that the box-makers are over-valued, and you may be right, but since I have no idea how to properly value growth companies (PEG and YPEG and cash-flow capitalization models don't work!) I'll have to pass judgement on that claim. But the fact that the tech sector has been down sharply over the past month, and given the high beta of growth stocks in the tech sector makes the fall of DELL and CPQ quite understandable, even in the face of very bullish news about 3Q sales. So my position is I see no reason to sell. There is one point that you made with which I am in absolut agreement. It is the height of foolishness to not have a well-diversified portfolio. While you can't avoid market risk (non-diversifiable), you certainly can avoid business risk (diversifiable). The way to do this is to have a portfolio of at least 12-15 high-quality stocks in your portfolio, and those stocks should be in a wide variety of business sectors. Regards, and not too much luck with your DELL short (I think you've had enough VBG) Paul