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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggersh who wrote (19810)	4/19/2009 2:17:50 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

<<Didn't they get killed in the market meltdown>> Harvard got ANNIHILATED, i have heard they lost as much as 40% of their Endowment. Max

To: ggersh who wrote (19810)	4/19/2009 3:11:57 PM
From: LTK007	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

Excerpt from Gregory Spear; <<Don't Forget the Umbrella If you do want another perspective, we note the following clouds on the horizon. First, adjustable mortgages will have massive resets in 2010-2011. Meanwhile, banks are not liquidating their foreclosure inventory at all rapidly, which means we could have one million unsold foreclosed homes by the end of 2009. These homes are piling up because banks do not want to take the losses on their balance sheets. Second, the ten largest banks in the U.S. have over $325 billion in commercial mortgages and S&P is just starting to downgrade mortgage-backed commercial paper. Meanwhile, small businesses are under pressure from cutbacks in lines of credit or in credit card limits, along with rising borrowing rates. Consumer credit card limits are being slashed as well, even for customers with good credit scores. Third, consumers are retrenching, which means savings rates are likely to rise for a number of years, moving from 0% to 6-8% before the system equilibrates. Consumer spending will retreat from 70% of U.S. GDP down to at best the low 60s and possibly lower. The writing is already on the wall of a strip mall or shopping center near you. The second largest shopping mall operator in the U.S., General Growth Properties, just filed for bankruptcy this week along with 158 of its regional shopping centers. Fourth, Federal income taxes will be going up sharply in 2010, and state and local taxes will also be raised to compensate for falling revenues. So, enjoy the ticker tape parade for now, but don't forget your umbrella.>> O yes he MOCKS the future earning forecasts of WS analysts. <<At this time, analysts are forecasting a 30% decline in Q2 earnings, followed by an 18% drop in Q3 and then a 74% earnings surge in the last quarter of 2009. These same analysts were clueless about 2008 earnings, however. In February 2008, they expected earnings for the S&P 500 to be $71, and as late as October 2008, they were still expecting $54 for the S&P, but the actual figure for the year is $14.88. Moreover, the entire earnings windfall is expected to be provided by a recovery of the financial sector. Therefore, to endorse this rally, you must endorse the expectations of improved profitability in the banks and brokerages. Analysts currently expect earnings for 2009 to be around $28. Based on as-reported earnings, S&P is estimating a 1st quarter P/E ratio of 127, a second quarter P/E of 1936, a third quarter P/E ratio of -465 and a Q4 P/E of 30. That means valuations will still be historically high if the financials actually pull the rabbit out of the hat.>> Note TSR is SWINGTRADE only. They have been for this rally 200% invested. They will flip immediately to -25% invested if NASDAQ drops 6% They use The Turtle System that i think can be Googled.(yes it can, i got 1,800 returns) <<Downside Reversal Trigger: A closing price in the Nasdaq that is 6% below the highest intraday level since 4/15/2009. Note that this trigger cannot be anticipated as new highs in the market would continue to raise this reversal trigger. In the event of a reversal, the Model will decrease its investment level to -25% invested. Each additional 3% decrease in the Nasdaq would cause the model to decrease its investment level in 25 percentage point increments. If a reversal is in turn reversed again before it is "confirmed" by another 3% move in the same direction, then the second reversal returns the model to the same position as before the first reversal.>> www.spearreport.com

To: ggersh who wrote (19810)	4/19/2009 4:31:01 PM
From: LTK007	3 Recommendations Respond to of 71456

CORRECTION!:i have been studying Swenlin's indicators. i am now saying a move to 920-950 on SPX would bring indicators to ULTRA ULTRA OVERBOUGHT. i am going to now say i will NOT use the Dow call for 9000-1000. i will be focusing on SPX500 only. And i am saying any move to 920-950 woud be a screaming short level. i will go further, the Swenlin Indicators are getting so wild, that a move to 950 would be setting up ANOTHER CRASH.Max The CURRENT SPX P/E per Swenlin's NO BULLSHIT P/E, but the real P/E, is now at 58.44 !!. As i say, TSR states the WS one year FORWARD P/E is a Psychotic Hallucination. And as they point out, they always do this. So i would say their One Year Forward SPX P/E projection of 14-1, is not a psychotic hallucination, it is instead a Criminally Created BullShit number they put out for The Suckers!!! Anyone that thinks WS has found Morality i can say also believes a NICKEL is more valuable than a DIME.. Max