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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (197174)	4/20/2009 8:05:58 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 306849

I learned about a decade ago not to really pay attention when someone said it had never happened before. There was a streak of positive closes on the last trading day of the year going back almost 30-years about 8-years ago, and everyone thought we'd close positive again because of that statistic. Well, we didn't, and the same thing goes for housing never going down. In the past century, housing has advanced on average at the rate of inflation. Take away inflation and revert back to the mean, and it doesn't advance anymore.

To: Les H who wrote (197174)	4/21/2009 4:23:13 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Under one scenario, the test assumes banks will see "no further losses" on these complex securities at the heart of the credit crisis. By contrast, it estimates that the banks' individual loans will lose up to 20 percent of their value. The methodology "certainly penalizes those banks that are more involved in traditional banking, which frankly have been performing better in recent months," said Wayne Abernathy, a former Treasury Department official now with the American Bankers Association. He said banks' loan portfolios have lost only about 5 percent of their value so far, whereas the value of complex securities are down 30 to 40 percent. apnews.excite.com