To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (48941 ) 4/22/2009 1:12:41 AM From: elmatador Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 217739 Japan Suffers Trade Deficit In FY08, 1st Since 1980 TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan's trade balance for fiscal 2008 suffered its first annual deficit in nearly three decades, data released Wednesday showed, underscoring the difficulty facing the export-reliant country in its attempt to get out of recession. The result also highlights how vulnerable the world's second largest economy is to the sharp slowdown in global trade triggered by the U.S.-originated financial crisis. The Ministry of Finance said Japanese exports plunged a record 16.4% to Y71.14 trillion during the fiscal year ended in March. Imports fell by 4.1% to Y71.87 trillion during the year, but the sharp fall in exports left the annual balance with a Y725.3 billion deficit, the first since fiscal 1980 when the country suffered a yearly deficit of Y1.42 trillion. Finance and Economy Minister Kaoru Yosano took the news seriously, saying that "the government has to examine whether Japan's international competitiveness is weakening in the area of producing goods." While the country's exports fell in all the major regions, a 27.2% slide in exports to the U.S. was particularly prominent. Driving the fall in exports to Japan's largest trading partner was a devastating 36.6% drop in auto shipments. As overseas demand for Japanese cars, electronics and other high-technology goods dwindled, the country's gross domestic product shrank an annualized 12.1% in the September-December period. Economists say the new trade data suggest an even bigger GDP shrinkage in the January-March period. While the data show exports fell slightly more moderately in March, down 45.6% on-year compared with a record 49.4% plunge in February, the monthly falls are still alarmingly big. "Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the fall, Japanese exports have fallen at a sharp rate, and despite signs of slight improvement going forward, there is no real sense of recovery yet with figures like this," said Hirokata Kusaba, senior economist at Mizuho Research Institute. The March trade balance eked out a surplus of Y11.0 billion, its second-straight month in the black. But that was only because a 36.7% fall in imports outpaced the drop in exports, as Japan's recession-stricken businesses and consumers scale back on foreign goods. While a trade surplus has traditionally signaled health for Japan's export-oriented economy, the March surplus indicated distress, many analysts said. The figure was slightly bigger than the average forecast of Y10.0 billion. But it was still very small by historical standards, they said. Even optimistic observers who see signs that Japanese exports and imports may have hit bottom in February have ruled out any significant short-term improvement. They acknowledge that overseas demand remains low and Japanese consumers continue to cut spending. "Given recent positive signs in overseas economic reports such as U.S. economic indicators, the worst for Japan's exports and imports may be over," said Hiroshi Watanabe, senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research. But, he added, "a full-fledged recovery in overseas demand is unlikely yet, thus Japan's trade won't likely improve much this year." The data show that exports have now fallen for six straight months and imports for five. Analysts say the drops are interrelated, with smaller exports causing smaller imports. Weak overseas demand for Japanese cars, electronics and other high-end goods has forced companies like Toyota and Sony to cut production and jobs. That, in turn, has bred worries about job security among workers, prompting them to curtail spending and slowing overall economic activity further. Imports of crude oil, semiconductors and food have fallen as a result, a Ministry of Finance official said. -By Andrew Monahan, Dow Jones Newswires; 813-6895-7553; andrew.monahan@dowjones.com (Takashi Mochizuki and Takashi Nakamichi contributed to this article.)