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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Juniors, Mid-tiers and Producers -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MICHEL GUIBERT who wrote (64897)4/23/2009 9:40:41 AM
From: loantech  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78409
 
I think 10 cents too. Martin says things are tougher the 1st quarter but we did get a rise in gold prices.

 Morning Note
Member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC)
Participating Organization – Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX)
Member – Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF)
April 21, 2009
Tara Hassan
416.603.7381 ext. 228
th@mpartners.ca

MARKET INFO
Closing Price, April 20, 2009 $3.92
52 Week Range $1.31 $4.93
Market Cap ($000's) $102,292
Enterprise Value ($000's) $76,271
Cash ($000) $26,021
Debt ($000) $0
Avg Volume (previous 3 months) 75,380
Shares o/s (000's) 26,095
FINANCIAL INFO (FYE Dec. 31) FY2008A FY2009E FY2010E
Revenue ($000's) 2 2,908 n/a n/a
EBITDA ($000's) 5 ,532 n/a n/a
Net Income ($000's) 2 ,086 n/a n/a
EPS 0.09 n/a n/a
CFPS 0.28 n/a n/a
VALUATION 2008E
Reserves (000 oz) 3 61
M&I Resources (000 oz) 5 58
Total Resources(M,I,I) (000 oz) 1 ,319
EV/Reserve ($/oz) $211.16
EV/Resource (M+I) ($/oz) $136.58
EV/Total Resource ($/oz) $57.84
Comparables Share EV
Consensus Est. C$ C$M 2009 2010 2011 2009 2010 2011
San Gold (SGR:TSXV) 1.85 436 0.23 0.33 0.42 7.9x 5.7x 4.4x
Alexis Minerals (AMC:TSX) 0.47 59 0.04 0.06 0.01 11.9x 7.9x 38.8x
Aurizon Mines (ARZ: TSX) 4.91 725 0.49 0.52 0.51 10.1x 9.4x 9.6x
Selected Company Average** 10.0x 7.7x 7.0x
**Excludes AMC in 2011
CFPS P/CFPS
RICHMONT MINES INC. (RIC)
MEETING WITH MANAGEMENT CONFIRMS 2009 LOOKS GOOD FOR RIC
Rating: Not under Coverage
12-Month Target: N/A
?? Yesterday, we had the opportunity to meet with Richmont Mines’ CEO as a follow
up to our meeting during PDAC.
?? We continue to believe that RIC is well positioned in the junior mining space with
estimated production of 70-80Koz in 2009, cash of CDN$26M (equivalent to
$1/share), and an outstanding growth profile that is garnering very little value at
this point.
?? As a reminder to our previous notes dated March 11 and March 30, RIC is
currently producing at two operations; the Island mine in NW Ontario and the
Beaufor mine in the Val d’Or region of Quebec. Although its mines fall on the
higher side of the cost curve, with average estimated costs in the US$500/oz
range, RIC has the benefit of high grades which are inline or in excess of its
northern peers and in excess of grades at most operations elsewhere in the
Americas. It is our view that this is an important consideration in evaluation of
producers that has been somewhat overlooked given the significant increase in
gold prices in recent years.
?? RIC remains on track to meet its production guidance of 70-80Koz per year with
minimal CAPEX spend required in 2009. Management expects costs to be in the
US$500/oz range, below 2008 reported costs of $546/oz and anticipates CAPEX to
be less than $10M, excluding exploration.
?? We anticipate that Q1 will be the weakest of the four quarters given the
seasonality associated with running operations in northern climates, however, we
expect that RIC will likely surpass the 15Koz mark with improvements through the
year from this level.
?? We again point out RIC’s strong potential for growth from three main areas:
1. Expansion of Current Operations: RIC’s producing assets, Island and Beaufor, both have demonstrated potential for
expansion at depth and laterally. RIC successfully replaced reserves and increased resources at these properties in 2008 and
has planned a significant exploration program in 2009 at both properties with a total of 45,000m planned, and is working its
towards its goal of defining 1Moz of gold reserves
2. Startup of New Operations: RIC is working towards starting up its Francouer project in Quebec within the next two years.
This past producing asset could add 30-35Koz/year to RIC’s production profile at relatively minimal CAPEX given that it can
utilize RIC’s existing Camflo mill and can be accessed via decline. We anticipate that this asset could reach production stage
for around CDN$20M.
3. Acquisition of New Properties: RIC’s significant cash position and tight capital structure afford it the opportunity to
consider accretive acquisitions that would help it reach its goal of 180-240Koz of annual production.
?? Based on internal growth alone, RIC has the potential to reach approximately 120-140Koz/year by 2011-2012. Assuming an $850/oz
gold price, $500/oz operating costs, a quick back of the envelope calculation shows that based on the above RIC is currently trading at
approximately 5-6x 2011 CFPS relative to its peer group which trades at approximately 7.0x CFPS. We continue to believe that RIC is
undervalued relative to its peers.

Source: M Partners, Company Information, Bloomberg
Note: M Partners has published this morning note on Richmont Mines Inc. (RIC), for which it does not and may not choose to provide continuous
research coverage. We do not provide a formal recommendation or target price. Bulletins are unrelated to our normal rating system described in
our disclosures.