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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (97030)	4/25/2009 1:15:56 PM
From: ajtj99	3 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Here's just a couple posts I pulled from 2006 showing the COMP 2892 target and timing: siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com Oh, I do elections as well. Here's 2006: siliconinvestor.com Here's another one from 2007 with some projections. Some were conservative (T-Bills and unemployment as well as the extent of the drop in the indices). siliconinvestor.com I adapted my models as conditions change. As you can see, I only anticipated the NDX dropping to 1302 for a low and the SPX 1136, but this was a projection posted almost a year before the peak from a model formulated over a year prior. You may note the words "wicked drop into the 1st quarter 2009" from the late 2007/early 2008 highs. Note I had 1620 SPX as the possible high, later modified to 1576. siliconinvestor.com I put my stuff out there in public well in advance, not after the fact as you seem to believe. I have proof. You have an armchair from which to sling barbs. I'd be interested to see what you were posting about 2007-2009 back in 2005 and 2006. My stuff goes all the way to the year 2022.

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (97030)	4/25/2009 1:34:49 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

I had the Bush/Kerry race correct in March 2004 as well: siliconinvestor.com

To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (97030)	4/26/2009 3:35:17 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

LG, i'm intrigued by your "up, up and away" economy call for 2009 since it is so contrary to my view. i don't want to argue but i would like insight into your thought process. 1. the bubbles of the past were effectively all based on a credit bubble. i believe this game is over because debt to income ratios are 88% now. compare this to half as much in 1987. folks in debt, losing their jobs, losing their homes, etc... tend to not take on more debt and banks will tend to not loan money in such a terrible environment. 2. the american economy is 71% service oriented. jobs drive the service economy and we are shedding jobs at an alarming rate. the unemployed and underemployed in CA is nearing 20% - and unemployment alone popped from 10.5% to 11.2% in march alone. i'm told this way under reports the actual numbers as it misses lots of self employed people. 3. state and local taxes are being dramatically increased - they can't print money. tax receipts are collapsing - i think they were down 40% in april. 4. every single economic indicator is dramatically worse now compared to 1998 except interest rates. housing is still over 2x the prices compared to 1998 on a nominal basis - at least in san diego. given the unemployment, the tax increases (CA recently had the largest tax increase in US history!), the reduced income, the reduced benefits, the reduced retirements, the increased savings... the math points to less spending, not more. 5. commercial real estate is leveraged to the hilt and selling at 50% off compared to 4 years ago. 6. the debt burden requires $3.5 trillion in new issue debt - $2 trillion to fund government and $1.5 trillion to reissue matured debt. i guess my main question to you is, "what will be the driver of the improvement of the economy?" i don't see one, assuming the credit bubble game is over - and i don't think that's up for debate.