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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: sandintoes who wrote (35092)4/25/2009 10:47:43 PM
From: Peter Dierks  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71588
 
South Africa's Progress
A rising middle class is a check on Zuma.
APRIL 25, 2009

The bellwether democracy in Africa this week held the most important elections since the first free poll 15 years ago. The outcome was never in doubt, but the fate of the South African project is.

Jacob Zuma, the 67-year-old victor with a spotty legal record, rose on the back of the hard left and unions. Once in the Presidency next month, he will lead a virtual one-party state. For the fourth consecutive time, the ruling African National Congress won some two-thirds of the vote. Other liberation movements in Africa have been corrupted by such an extended monopoly on power. From the 1960s through 2004 in sub-Saharan, according to a study by Ethan Kapstein and Nathan Converse, 17 democracies survived, but 29 were "reversed" -- i.e., became authoritarian for at least a year.

Mr. Zuma keeps his policies vague to keep various supporters happy. He pledges to reduce poverty, improve education and redistribute the nation's wealth. At the same time, he vows the ANC won't abandon sound economics, change the constitution or expropriate mostly white-held wealth like in neighboring Zimbabwe. It will not be easy to keep both sets of promises.

Yet for all these warts, South Africa has done far better than anyone hoped 15 years ago. This election offers more hints of progress. Mr. Zuma began his ascent by ousting the unpopular former President Thabo Mbeki from the ANC leadership -- an exhilaratingly democratic act in Africa. The Mbeki supporters formed a splinter party, which got 7%, but which could form the nucleus of a future black opposition.

More remarkably, the Democratic Alliance continued to broaden its support, to 16% from low single digits a decade ago. Originally made up of white liberals opposed to apartheid, the party has gathered the leading dissident voices. Its leader Helen Zille, the white mayor of Cape Town, won enough votes from mixed-race and black voters to prevail in the Western Cape. The ANC had never before lost control over a provincial government.

As powerful as he is, Mr. Zuma and the ANC must contend with checks and balances, some formal and some not. Among them are independent courts, a lively media, strong churches and NGOs, particularly those devoted to challenging the government's passive response to AIDS. Also important is the role of business and globalization.

The ANC may often think it's the state, but the state isn't the economy. Asked why he cultivates businessmen who don't vote for him, Mr. Zuma says they vote with their money. "They run the economy," he told us last year. To please this constituency, Trevor Manuel, the finance minister hated by the ANC left, may stay in a Zuma government.

Bankers and mining executives helped lead the ANC away from Marxist economics and guided Nelson Mandela and Thabo Mbeki toward investment-friendly policies that have driven strong growth. A small but growing black middle class has risen and has a stake in the democratic status quo often missing in other transition states.

As South Africa shows, a free market and an expanding civil society beyond the reach of the state are the crucial ingredients to the success of an emerging democracy. Mr. Zuma can be a good or bad leader for South Africa. But fortunately, its fate isn't entirely at his mercy.


online.wsj.com



To: sandintoes who wrote (35092)4/25/2009 11:01:14 PM
From: Peter Dierks  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71588
 
Past, President and Future
Obama was right to resist reopening the torture debate.
By PEGGY NOONAN
APRIL 24, 2009

What makes it hard at the moment to write sympathetically of Barack Obama is the loud chorus of approbation arising from his supporters in journalism as they mark the hundred days. Drudge calls it the "Best President Ever" campaign. It is marked by an abandonment of critical thinking among otherwise thoughtful men and women who comprise, roughly speaking, the grown-ups of journalism, the old hands of the MSM who have been through many presidents and should know better. They are insisting too much. If they were utterly confident, they wouldn't be.

In the area of foreign affairs, one of the arguments for candidate Barack Obama was that he would put a new stamp—new ways, new style and content—on America's approach to the world. This might allow some in the world—occasional allies, foes, irritated sympathizers—to recalibrate and make positive readjustments in their attitude toward Washington. With George W. Bush, everyone got dug in, and the ground froze. After 9/11 he cut like a sword and divided: You were with us or against us. He launched a war that angered major allies. For seven years there was constant agitation, and the world was allowed to make a caricature of U.S. leadership. There was no capture of Osama bin Laden, the man who made 9/11 and whose seizure would have provided a unifying Western rallying point and inspired instructive admiration: Those Yanks get their man.

A second foreign-affairs argument for Mr. Obama is that we had entered the age of weapons of mass destruction (we'd entered it before 9/11, but only after that date did everyone know) under solely Republican rule. Which allowed anyone who wanted to, to perceive it, or play it, as a Republican war, a Republican drama. There were potential benefits in a change in leadership, one being that the Democrats would now share authority and responsibility for the age and its difficulties. They'd get the daily raw threat file, they'd apply their view of the world and do their best. A primary virtue of that: On the day something bad happened—and that day will come, and no one in the entire U.S. intelligence community will tell you otherwise—we would as a nation be spared, as we got through it, the added burden of the terrible, cleaving, partisan divisiveness of 2000-08. This would help hold us together in a hard time.

Is Mr. Obama putting a new style and approach on the age? Yes. On the occasion of the hundred days one can say: So far, so good. (We are limiting this discussion to foreign policy because in terms of domestic policy there are only so many ways to say "Oy.") There is an air of moderation, a temperate approach. Mr. Obama shakes hands with everyone, as is appropriate, for if American presidents dined only with leaders of high moral caliber and democratic disposition, they'd often sit alone at the table of nations. Though the controversy was that Mr. Obama shook Hugo Chavez's hand at the summit last week, the news was the desperation with which Mr. Chavez tried to get in the picture with him. It's not terrible when they want to be in the picture with you. It all depends on what you do with the proximity and in the ensuing conversation.

But now a hard issue has arisen, and it may well have bad foreign-policy implications.

Mr. Obama has had great and understandable difficulty in balancing competing claims regarding how to treat government information on prisoner abuse. The White House debated, decided to release Bush-era memos, then said they wouldn't allow anyone to be prosecuted, then said maybe they would. It was flat-footed, confusing. The only impressive Obama we saw on the question this week was the one described by "a senior White House official" in the Washington Post. He or she was quoted saying, of the internal administration debates, that the president was concerned that a 9/11-style commission "would ratchet the whole thing up," and "His whole thing is: I banned all this. This chapter is over. What we don't need now is to become a sort of feeding frenzy where we go back and relitigate this."

Assuming the official spoke accurately of Mr. Obama's attitude, the president was wise in his reservations.

A problem with the release of the documents is that it opens the way—it probably forces the way—to congressional hearings, or a commission, or an independent prosecutor. It is hard at this point to imagine that what will follow will not prove destructive to—old-fashioned phrase coming—the good of the country.

Torture is bad, and as to whether the procedures outlined in the memos constituted torture, you could do worse than follow the wisdom of John McCain, who says, "Waterboarding is torture, period." This is something he'd know about. Abuse is wrong not only in a specific and immediate sense but in a larger one: It coarsens and damages the nation that does it while undermining its reputation in the world and its trust in itself. I freely admit it is easy to say this on a pretty day in spring 2009, and might not have been when 3,000 Americans had just been killed. In New York it took months for us to lose the terrible, burnt-plastic smell of the smoke. The earliest memos were written by men who still had the smell of smoke in their noses.

Why have reservations, then, about release of the memos and the investigations that will no doubt follow?

For these reasons. Prisoner abuse has been banned. Mr. Obama himself, as he notes in the quote above, banned it. It's over. The press, with great difficulty, and if arguably belatedly, did and is doing its job: It uncovered and revealed the abuse. The historians are descending, as they should. Hearings, commissions or prosecutors would suck all the oxygen out of the room and come to obsess the capital, taking focus off two actual, immediate and pressing emergencies, the economy and the age of terror. Hearings, especially, would likely tear up the country as we descended into opposing camps. They would damage or burden America's intelligence services, and likely result in the abuse of those who acted from high motives, having been advised their actions were legal. As for the memo writers, some of whose constitutional theories were apparently tilted to the extreme in favor of the executive, it is hard to see how it would help future administrations, or this one, to have such advice, however incorrectly formulated, criminalized.

Finally, hearings would not take place only in America. They would take place in the world, in this world, the one with extremists and terrible weapons. It is hard to believe hearings, with grandstanding senators playing to the crowd, would not descend into an auto-da-fé, a public burning of sinners, with charges, countercharges, leaks and graphic testimony. This would be a self-immolating exercise that would both excite and inform America's foes. And possibly inspire them.

Meanwhile, a resurgent Taliban is moving toward Islamabad and, possibly, the Pakistani nuclear arsenal; Israel and Iran are at loggerheads; and Iraq and Afghanistan continue as live and difficult wars. And that's just one small part of the world.

What a time to open a new front, and have a new fight, and not about what is but what was.

Hard not to believe it wouldn't be better to leave this one to history, and the historians. Absent that, a commission is better than a public prosecutor with an endless prosecution, and a public prosecutor is better than congressional hearings. Really, almost anything would be better than that.


online.wsj.com



To: sandintoes who wrote (35092)4/27/2009 6:57:55 AM
From: DuckTapeSunroof  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 71588
 
Re: "Right now it doesn't sound like Fiat is interested."

Fiat is very interested.

(I suppose that they are just looking for the sweetest deal they can manage though....)