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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: energyplay who wrote (49308)	4/27/2009 8:24:31 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218539

perhaps not so surprising given popularity of flu, but maybe not well-known enough, hk scientists are some of the leaders on subject given population size same same on micro motors and specialty niche of nano this and that, i believe, together with traditional medicine watch n brief on flu, per stratfor U.S., Mexico: The Swine Flu and a Potential Pandemic Stratfor Today » April 25, 2009 \| 2234 GMT Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images A soldier handing out surgical masks for swine flu prevention in Mexico City on April 24Summary A new strain of flu has spread from Mexico to the United States, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as well as the World Health Organization have issued statements indicating that they are very concerned about the possible spread of the virus. Analysis The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced April 25 that the so-called “swine flu” that has spread from its apparent origin in Mexico to the United States cannot be contained. Similarly, the World Health Organization (WHO) has indicated the new strain of flu has the potential to become a pandemic, although the organization did not raise its pandemic alert level. The situation is developing extremely rapidly, and information is limited. STRATFOR is watching the issue closely, and will await further news from health officials monitoring the outbreak at the CDC. According to preliminary test results from the CDC, the swine flu appears to be a combination of bird, swine and human flu strains from all around the world. The virus appears to cause slightly higher-than-normal levels of diarrhea and vomiting, and can develop into an acute respiratory infection after about five days of sickness. Infected persons have included healthy adults between 25 and 44 years old — so those afflicted are not just the old, very young and already sick. The virus appears to be responding to Tamiflu, particularly when caught at an early stage. Tamiflu manufacturer Roche has indicated that it is prepared to release stockpiles of the drug. Mexico reportedly has only 1 million doses of the drug stockpiled, and is only distributing the drug through doctors. This could hamper the country’s ability to halt the spread of the disease in Mexico City, which has a population of just under 9 million people. Many of the details on the spread of this flu are unclear because the tests used to confirm the presence of this strain take several days. However, so far there might be as many as 68 deaths and up to 1,000 possible infections in Mexico, mostly in Mexico City. There have been no deaths in the United States; however, there have been a number of confirmed cases of swine flu in San Diego, Kansas and San Antonio. There is a cluster of 75 flu cases at a high school in New York City, eight of which have been confirmed as probable cases of swine flu. The CDC’s statement that the swine flu is unable to be contained is not as dire as it may sound, and essentially reflects the reality of the rapid and wide distribution of the swine flu thus far. True containment is possible only when exposed individuals or communities can be effectively isolated. With the extremely high rate of people and goods moving by plane, car, boat and foot across the U.S.-Mexican border, the two countries are highly interconnected. Once the swine flu is inside the United States and located in major metropolitan areas, the capacity to isolate individuals is even smaller. This is not to say that there are no precautions that can be taken. Government officials in the United States and Mexico have announced school closures and advised individuals to avoid crowded areas. In response to the spread of the disease, Mexican President Felipe Calderon has declared a state of emergency, giving him broad powers to cancel public events. Basic precautionary measures such as frequent hand washing and avoiding contact with infected persons are also being promoted. The CDC is publishing its own findings on the new strain of flu (updated information can be found at cdc.gov. At this point, the information is too limited to make any real predictions about the possible impact of the disease. STRATFOR is taking this seriously and is awaiting the results from the CDC’s ongoing study. In the event of too little information or bad news from the CDC’s analysis, it is possible that the financial markets could react very poorly come Monday, April 27. However, the situation is developing extremely rapidly, and the CDC may be able to present more concrete findings before the weekend is through.

To: energyplay who wrote (49308)	4/29/2009 1:47:15 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 218539

just in in-tray, per stratfor Geopolitical Diary: Mexico's Flu Mortality Rate April 28, 2009 On Monday we continued to monitor the spread and effects of swine flu, as the World Health Organization raised its pandemic alert level from 3 to 4 (6 is the level for a full-blown pandemic). Though many aspects of this flu outbreak have become clearer, several questions remain unanswered. First and foremost among these is: Why have deaths from this outbreak been limited to Mexico? The country’s death toll, which stood at 103 when Mexico and the rest of North America woke up Monday morning, had risen to about 149 deaths by the afternoon. In the United States, the number of confirmed swine flu cases rose to at least 40 —with one person hospitalized — and reports of isolated cases have popped up around the world, from New Zealand to Spain. Mexico is a country with obvious infrastructure challenges, including access to health care and water in Mexico City (water supplies recently have been cut off for days at a time in many parts of the capital). However, the government has mounted a significant response to the outbreak and has substantial resources at its disposal. In other words, infrastructure alone is not a satisfactory explanation as to why so many people have died in Mexico in such a short time, while no deaths have been reported yet in other countries. As the apparent location of first infection, Mexico was at a serious disadvantage in terms of information needed to combat the virus. The illness was first noted as early as February in Mexico, but at the time there was no reason to suspect that it was anything other than an isolated, severe case of the normal flu. Mexican health officials attributed an increase in respiratory infections in mid- to late March to seasonal weather changes. It has become clear that most of the people who have been hospitalized in Mexico arrived at the hospital with pneumonia — a common complication of the flu that stems from a bacterial infection of the lungs. That these patients already were suffering from complications leads us to some very tentative conclusions. First, those who arrived at the hospital with symptoms of pneumonia certainly do not qualify as cases of “early detection” in the swine flu outbreak. This makes it much more likely that the swine flu cases that are appearing in the Mexican health system will result in fatalities. Second, Mexico’s method of testing has focused on patients who have been hospitalized; therefore, those testing positive for the new flu strain already are much more susceptible to severe and possibly fatal complications. Finally, because Mexico has had time to absorb the effects of the outbreak, there has been a great deal of back-checking on the records — including plans to exhume the bodies of suspected swine flu victims from February — which allows for post-hoc discovery of flu victims. Medical sources have told STRATFOR that, unlike their counterparts in Mexico, officials in the United States have been testing patients who are still ambulatory (and they seem to be trending toward testing those with risk factors such as having traveled recently to Mexico). This means that the diagnosed swine flu patients are more likely to receive proper medical care and recover. It also means that the United States has not necessarily been in a position to identify cases of the new virus that already have caused people to be hospitalized; authorities instead might have assumed that swine flu cases were simply severe cases of the seasonal flu. The distinction between the U.S. and Mexican testing methods means there is no way to clearly assess how many people have been infected, and it is impossible to gauge the rate of mortality associated with this new strain of flu with any certainty. In Mexico, there is a bias toward a higher morbidity rate, while the U.S. method is biased toward a much lower rate. But numerous other factors exist that could account for the nil death rate in the United States (and elsewhere) as compared to Mexico thus far, ranging from the timing of the flu infections to demographic issues. For example, there simply might not have been enough time yet for the flu to take its full effect in the United States and elsewhere. Additionally, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the median age for infection in the United States is 16. Because younger people appear to be recovering from this disease more quickly than older people, the low median age for the United States could result in more rapid rates of apparent recovery. Very little is known about the nature of this virus. Until the CDC has finished its analysis, there is no real way to know even whether it is a single illness that the world is dealing with, or whether the flu has mutated sufficiently to mitigate the effects for populations outside Mexico. A distinct possibility remains that mortality rates could increase outside Mexico, or perhaps that the early warning from Mexico will be sufficient for the global medical community to mount an effective response. At present, however, the aggregate knowledge that passes as situational awareness on this topic is mercurial at best, and the medical community is making educated guesses. This issue is outside of STRATFOR’s expertise, but we will continue to watch the situation as it evolves, including the outbreak’s effects on global markets, which were shaky enough to begin with.