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Strategies & Market Trends : Longer-Term Market Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ftian who wrote (2151)	5/1/2009 9:57:28 AM
From: AllansAlias	7 Recommendations Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 3209

I do not want to sound pedantic, so read this knowing I am smiling. I want to answer your question, but first, the potentially pedantic sounding preamble... When we are not just staying with a trend, we do not need to know which way the market is going per se. What we need to know is when it is going to move. In other words, we need to distinguish periods of time where entering/exiting/trading can be very profitable because we know that volatility is about to increase -- because we know a move is imminent. This is often referred to as an inflection point. This is where we are. At an inflection point, a trader should know what the "expected" resolution will be -- i.e., up or down. Where we are now, the expected resolution is down. Why? Because we have built this lazy, wedgey-like overhang the last many weeks -- which is not a bullish formation -- and we have a valid Elliott count in the wider timeframes that sees a "v of big C" pending (recall that our "big C" down has been the call for a year now). So, I prepare for what I expect here; that the next tradable move will be down. However, at these inflection points, it is often the case that a move in the opposite direction is not just a case of being wrong -- i.e., u get out and reassess. Rather, it is often the case that a move in the opposite direction is a "Hound signal" -- something that should not happen, and if it does, get on board because the Hound is among the very top signals in trading. So, if we were to rise up out of this wedgey-like crap we have built the last many weeks, it would be a melt-up you would not want to miss. If u read my previous post in this context, I hope it is more clear. Cheers, AA