Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (49410)	4/30/2009 2:31:01 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218439

OH well elmo not so sure that >>The left makes me coffee. The right one irons my shirts.<<ggg>>>

To: elmatador who wrote (49410)	4/30/2009 7:56:14 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218439

you bad give a hug to them for me watch n brief GREED & fear - Capital Links confirmed, 30 April 2009 · Swine flu is clearly the potential “hole in the head” for deflation-threatened world markets. In this sense there is now an obvious near term risk at hand with the potential to crush the relief rally in equities. Still, for now, GREED & fear will maintain the tactical view that the equity rally has further to run following a period of grinding around the 870 resistance level on the S&P500. · The most interesting development this week has been the announcement of China Mobile’s purchase of a 12% stake in Taiwan’s Far EasTone. This deal, combined with the news that China plans to allow QDII funds to invest in Taiwan stocks, is exactly the sort of newsflow anticipated when CLSA published its original Capital Links report in 2006. This is also likely to be the first of several deals where prominent Chinese SOEs invest in Taiwan. · The results of the third round of talks between the two relevant cross-strait entities held last weekend were a surprising increase in the number of direct flights per week, an agreement on a framework for future negotiation on MOUs regarding financial services sector integration, and a joint statement indicating that a consensus has been reached on opening Taiwan to mainland Chinese investment. · Investors should now assume that, sooner or later, mainland entities will buy real estate in Taipei – just as they did in Hong Kong after the 1984 deal. This is why Taiwan stocks with land banks are interesting. · GREED & fear’s advice remains to maintain an overweight in Taiwan. The story is just beginning, not ending. Relative-return investors can certainly not afford to ignore this political dynamic. Taiwan will be raised in the Asia Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio this week by 1ppt to maintain an overweight. The money will be taken from Korea. · There are also potentially positive implications for the NT dollar which remains cheap on a PPP basis. Macro traders are advised to go long the NT dollar against the yen. There is also the potential for local government bond yields to rise should the domestic momentum pick up. · Hank the hunk’s and Billyboy’s alleged pressures on Bank of America chairman Kenneth Lewis not to pull out of the Merrill merger is the latest example of the hopeless contortions forced upon the policy elite as they try to “save the system”. The apparent seeming willingness to ignore the interests of Bank of America shareholders harms “the system” far more than the supposed bailout is meant to protect it. · Assuming charitably the PPIP project does finally gain traction, GREED & fear would advise the buy side against participation since the scheme does not pass the smell test. The real national service would be to admit to the up-front cost of the problem and deal with it via the good bank/bad bank solution. In GREED & fear’s view the cost in terms of a percentage of GDP will be significantly less than some recent emerging market crises. · The hopelessly conflicted state of the TARP recipients reminds GREED & fear of a chronically dysfunctional family. Indeed GREED & fear views the present half private / half public state of these politicised institutions as fundamentally untenable. · Apart from the good bank/bad bank nationalisation approach, the authorities should be looking for ways to reduce the size of these financial behemoths, not making them bigger. On this point GREED & fear still believes the end game will be some modern version of the Glass-Steagall Act. · The announcement by China that it has increased its gold reserves has caused a certain flurry of interest. The signal China is sending is that it can increase its gold holdings, should it want to, from domestic sources. This is presumably to discourage traders’ expectations that they will have to bid up in the open market. The announcement is a further indication of China’s decision to continue to diversify out of paper into things. · The new global financial currency system, which will follow the imminent demise of the US dollar paper standard, will not be based on the IMF’s SDRs. Gold will go parabolic in the interim following the collapse of the old system as a consequence of the failed policies of Billyboy; and before the emergence of a new system, which is probably most likely to take the form of regional currency blocs. · GREED & fear remains comfortable with maintaining the overweight in India in the relative-return portfolio despite the obvious uncertainty posed by the current general election. The key reason for the overweight has been the view that the RBI’s aggressive monetary easing in the past seven months will gain traction since the banking system does not have a structural bad debt issue to deal with. The investment in China Mobile in the absolute-return portfolio will be removed and replaced by ICICI Bank. · The result of the India general election remains inherently unpredictable. Still a coalition formed by a motley mix of regional parties remains a risk that cannot be dismissed altogether. Such an outcome would trigger nervousness on the rupee given India’s fiscal predicament. · The latest US housing data suggests a certain stabilisation. Still GREED & fear would advise caution. The temporary, and indeed wholly arbitrary, ban on foreclosures by Fannie and Freddie and certain prominent financial institutions ended last month. That suggests a pick up in foreclosure activity. The most encouraging statistic GREED & fear can find on US housing is rising transaction activity in California. · Another issue for the US housing market is the rising share of mortgages which are FHA insured and the surging number of FHA-backed loans with instant defaults. These suggest that the US housing market is not exactly clearing in a classic free market sense with the continuing federal government involvement. · The national nature of the housing decline means that the mobility of labour is declining in America as people remain trapped in negative equity. This is the opposite of what usually happens in the US since Americans are normally quick to move from a recessionary state to a booming one. Mortgage forbearance policies are the last thing the US need if its economy is to maintain its traditionally highly flexible nature. CLSA CLEAN & GREEN: Please consider our environment before printing this email. The content of this communication is subject to CLSA Legal and Regulatory Notices These can be viewed at clsa.com or sent to you upon request.