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To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (199814)5/3/2009 1:27:26 PM
From: kikogreyRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
I'm kind of thinking that those who get swine flu now in it's somewhat mild phase might be the lucky ones since I would assume they would have some immunity to the virus even if it mutates.

FWIW I think those who are viewing this flu as much ado about nothing are being a bit naive. The jump to human-human transmission is huge, in addition to the fact that it is not flu season in Mexico.

For example yesterday I started feeling like have swine flu (sore throat, muscle aches) and I typically never get sick. (Minus fever so not really flu.)

I haven't traveled to Mexico, but Mexico travels to the Los Angeles area hospital that I work in. Multiply that scenario times thousands and the theoretical rapidity of transmission can be appreciated.

You are correct that viruses typically don't like to kill their hosts rapidly because they themselves would like to survive, however, even a brief mutation in a virulent form could be devastating because no humans have immunity to this virus.



To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (199814)5/3/2009 1:38:00 PM
From: Patricia TrincheroRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
I wonder what the mathematical probability is that this swine flu will mutate in a similar pattern. Given the number of nucleotides and the need for a sequential pattern to be in place, I would guess it isn't high................but I am not certain of it.

The plain old regular flu we see every year kills about 37k people...............we are a ways away from that figure.