SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Pastimes : Heart Attacks, Cancer and strokes. Preventative approaches -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: spiral3 who wrote (4881)5/5/2009 11:26:23 PM
From: Joe NYC  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 39298
 
Except that your example did not show 100% correlation and you did not show that you were aware of this. Maybe you were thinking that in your mind, but you did not show it, simply did not make the contents of your mind apparent, with the level of clarity you perceive. This kind of thing can lead to problems when it comes into contact with the outside world. We are not mind readers, you have to spell it out better. Anyway this is a diversion, as the owner of the aforementioned content you're entitled to the last word.

I don't think I was that unclear. Specifically, I said:
"Since we know that every time there is a fire in NYC, a fire truck is at the scene"
Message 25614113

That is equivalent to saying that there is a 100% correlation between fires in NYC and fire trucks at the scene.

Again a binary position. What about associations that are not 100% or very weak. I think that causation and association are important factors, you seem to want to wage a war on the later, I say ignore them at your peril.

Not really. What my "beef" is the people who start from weak data and draw far reaching conclusions. First, it was the author of the study, and then Jane Brody, multiplying the conclusions by a factor of 10.

It reminds me of the possible role of infection in heart disease that E. Charters brought up on the other thread. We have seen a meaningful association between gum disease and heart disease. Does gum disease cause heart disease, I don’t think it’s been scientifically proven thus far that it does, but there is a strong association. Perhaps those with gum disease are more likely to be following unhealthier lifestyles in the first place, making causative determination very difficult for some scientists, or rather, the relationship is reciprocal. This does not mean that the info we have from the science so far, is useless, let alone inconsequential. In my view it’s irrelevant that science has not proved “causation” in this instance, I believe such phenomena co-arise or are dependently originated, and the pre-sense, or presence of meaningful association means taking preventative measures where possible.

I think you are on the right track in looking for other associations rather than jumping up and down saying "Gum disease causes heart disease", which is what Jane Brody would have done when presented the association - or correlation.

There is another pre-condition that has to be met for Jane Brody (or anyone at New York Times) to start jumping up and down. It has to be consistent with their political agenda.

BTW, in addition to lifestyle factors, gum disease increases or any kind of infection increases inflammation, and chronic inflammation may be positively proven to be the cause of heart disease.

Joe