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To: Tommaso who wrote (77577)5/4/2009 11:09:38 AM
From: Dale BakerRespond to of 118717
 
I'm doing well in international stocks again; like 2003, they were way oversold compared to actual earnings power, and the dollar is due for another run south thanks to all the new liquidity.

I think inflation may take several years to emerge given the big deflationary hole in GDP that needs to be filled first.

Whatever one's strategy, sitting around trying to figure out which parts of the stock market to short right now strikes me as fairly futile. Like I said, bears are right at one point in their three-gear cycle, but it's the minority of the time when you look at history, a small minority in the last 30 years.



To: Tommaso who wrote (77577)5/4/2009 11:13:09 AM
From: Keith FeralRespond to of 118717
 
Higher commodity prices and inflation are a required event for the markets to rally. With the exception on nat gas in the US, prices appear to be slowly recovering. I suspect they will pull nat gas out of the doldrums too.

Commodities and financials have been the 2 biggest areas of disappointment throughout the tail end of the bear market meltdown. Both groups have to perform on the way back up.


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