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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (7804)	10/27/1997 4:39:00 PM
From: Real Man	Respond to of 94695

In terms of price/earnings - yes. But long-term trend price for 1997 is about 47,000 on Nikkei. We are at 17,000 now. Price/sales and Price/book are very low. These are the only long-term indicators. Earnings are low because it's in deep depression, extremely low margins. I have bought Hitachi, because it traded around book and 0.4 sales. I have closed my Japanese position today, but I'll be coming back once this is over. My long-term trend (from 1970 on) indicates more than 100,000 on Nikkei by 2010. The long-term trend indicates a bubble in 1985-1989, and about an equal-size undervaluation right now (a factor of 2). But the market turn is usually very slow. Under no circumstances I expect Nikkei to rally while Wall street crashes. I am looking there as a currency hedge (instead of gold) plus stock appreciation. For sure, the old bad debt in Japan will be gone faster than the new one on Wall street. I thought this was the last bear leg in Japan, but if Wall Street's intentions to tank are serious, it will last longer. Talking about crash for so long and not believing when it's here? THIS IS THE BIG KAHUNA! All the correct timing and characteristics of it. -Vi