FACTBOX-Revisions to precious metals price forecasts
Published: 03 May 2009 18:37:58 PST
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LONDON, May 1 - Bullion prices have slipped in recent weeks as equity markets recovered, with investors becoming more optimistic the global economic slowdown may be bottoming out.
Fears over the outlook for the car industry are also continuing to weigh on platinum group metals prices, after Chrysler said it is seeking Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Carmakers account for more than half of PGMs demand.
Gold prices remain supported, however, by worries measures taken by governments around the world to raise money supply may lead to rising inflation in the longer term.
Below are recent price forecasts for precious metals spot prices.
UBS (MAY 1)
* UBS lifted its platinum forecasts to $1,175 an ounce in one month from $1,100 previously, and to $1,275 an ounce in three months from $1,150.
* In the same periods, it sees palladium prices at $220 an ounce, against a previous forecast of $200, and at $230 an ounce from $210.
* The Swiss bank cut its silver forecasts, however, to $14.00 an ounce from $15.75 on a one-month basis, and to $15.50 an ounce in three months, from $17.00.
INVESTEC (APR 28)
* Investec sees platinum prices averaging $1,060 an ounce in the full year 2009, and says it expects autocatalyst material rhodium to average $1,310 an ounce this year.
* It said: "We believe platinum needs a surge in industrial demand, particularly autocatalysts, to see a sustained price increase from current levels. Investment demand alone will not be enough to push the price well beyond $1,200 an ounce."
RBS GLOBAL BANKING & MARKETS (APR 24)
* RBS raised its silver price forecast to $13.25 an ounce in 2009 from $12.00, and its 2010 price view to $14.25 an ounce from $13.25.
* The bank said the metal is likely to be in surplus this year due to a fall in industrial demand and consumption by the photography sector.
* "However, in the current environment of increased uncertainty, we believe that silver will be able to rise in tandem with gold though the 2009-2010 period, with the gold:silver ratio staying below 75," it said.
* The bank expects gold prices of $950 an ounce in 2009 and $1,000 in 2010. It sees platinum at $1,200 an ounce and $1,400 in the same years, and palladium at $250 an ounce and $350.
SOCIETE GENERALE (APR 14)
* Societe Generale updated its 2009 precious metals forecasts, and said it now sees gold at $865 an ounce this year.
* The bank also raised its 2009 price view for platinum to $1,059 an ounce from $876 forecast last month. It lifted its outlook for palladium prices to $210 an ounce from $205.
* It also said it now sees silver at $12.00 an ounce.
JPMORGAN (APRIL 8)
* JPMorgan lifted its 2009 price view for gold to $960 an ounce from $831 previously, and its 2010 forecast for the precious metal to $950 an ounce from $825.
* The bank also raised its outlook for silver prices. It now sees silver averaging $13.90 an ounce in 2009, against a previous forecast of $11.00, and $13.40 in 2010, against $10.00.
* "Investment demand continues to act as an offset, to some degree, to a very weak physical market in precious metals, gold in particular," the bank said in a research note.
BARCLAYS CAPITAL (MAR 20)
* Barclays Capital raised its gold price forecast for 2009 to $940 an ounce, it said, citing the prospect of a weaker dollar and fears over inflation.
* "Plans for further quantitative easing by the United States has seen the dollar nosedive," the bank said in a note. "In that environment, gold will shine, and we have revised our price forecast higher."
* The bank said it expects prices to rise to $905 an ounce in the second quarter from $872 in the first, to $950 in the third quarter and to $980 in the last three months of the year.
BNP PARIBAS (MAR 11)
* BNP Paribas said it expects gold to average $900 an ounce in 2009, rising to $950 an ounce the following year. It sees prices initially weakening, before rising strongly in the fourth quarter of 2009.
* The bank sees gold at $905 an ounce in the first quarter, $860 in the second, $865 in the third quarter and $970 in the final quarter of 2009.
* "The safe haven appeal of gold is likely to be sustained, driving ETF and physical demand higher," the bank said.
* "However, the weakness of industrial and jewellery demand, on one hand, allied with higher scrap supply on the other, is likely to provide a cap on prices during the first half of the year," it added. |
