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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (49721)	5/7/2009 7:40:23 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218083

neah, 2019 is too far off. let us simply back-test for now. how do you feel about this scenario (painted 2/27/2001) ? i figure the situation turning out worse because interest rate was pressed lower than reckoned, a sin, and for a longer time than normally dared, a double sin, but, still in the spirit, i believe, and thus much punishment will be, old testament style Message 15421566 Do not know about economics, but here are some upcoming news headlines. The order and specific company names are not important. Say 18-24 months. If we do not believe that at least 25% of the headlines will come to pass within the next 18-24 months (time determined by recklessness of Maestro), we should start to accumulate stocks now, looking pass the valley of gloom. The sooner we see some of these headlines, the sooner we can get back to buying "for the long term". “GE Lays Off Another 5%” “GM Shuts SUV Lines” “S&P Downgrades Cisco” “Dow Sets Record Historic Decline On Record Volumn” “Major Fraud Discovered at …..” “Margin Panic” “Economic Cycle Rediscovered” “Productivity Index Misled for The Past 10 Years” “Social Security Under Funding Expected” “GE Capital Owes Up On Hidden Losses” “The House That Jack Left” “Threat Of War In The Middle East” “Russia Sharply Increases Arms Export To Save Economy” “Butter Healthier Than Margarine” (this one is true already) “Too Much Vitamin C Causes Brain Damage” (ditto) “Cellular Phone Radiation Is ….” “Japan to Save Economy By Increasing Defense Spending” “Global Economy Contracted 5% - Lead By US” “FED Lowers Discount Rate to 2.5%” “Corporate Bond Spreads at Historic Peak” “Euro Wobbles On Economic Disunity” “Dollar Implodes” “Amazon Defaults” “Congress Holds Hearing On The Cause Of Doom” “Gold Is Back” “Precious Metal Reappears On Business Week Where To Invest Your Money Issue” “CNBC Increases Time Reporting On Bonds” “NY Crime Rate Rises Sharply” “Trading Volume and Margin Loan Profit Down Sharply” “Lights Out At Ameritrade” “Many Blue Chips Trading at Replacement Value, Further Losses Not Expected” “Nasdaq Hits P/E 10, Early Recovery Not Expected”

To: KyrosL who wrote (49721)	5/7/2009 7:42:08 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218083

btw, what was your forecast at that juncture? do tell. oops, here be it, not exactly bang on Message 16319329 (9/8/2001) I can't see a rise in inflation. The reasons: Rampant overcapacity that will get worse as the recession intensifies. In particular, deflation in technology products and services will continue unabated. But the old ECONOMY is also plagued by overcapacity almost everywhere one looks. A lot of our imports come from countries whose currencies are tied to the dollar or are even weaker than the dollar (China, Japan, most other Asian countries, Latin America). Energy prices are dollar denominated, and in a recession, OPEC will be hard pressed to hold current prices, let alone raise them. Although dot.coms have crashed, the Internet is alive and well and is exerting increasing deflationary pressures to a widening range of services from insurance to travel to financial services, as well as retailing. House prices appear to have peaked and may even start deflating. Office vacancies are already skyrocketing and office rents are falling nationwide. Food prices will not rise and will probably fall. Growing seasons are increasing around the world (a side effect of global warming.) Food technologies that increase yields are spreading fast. World population is rising much less rapidly than the past few decades. If anything, it seems to me that the more credible scenario is deflation rather than inflation.