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Strategies & Market Trends : Playing the QQQQ with Terry and friends. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (4677)	5/7/2009 7:44:24 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 4814

<<come to far to fast???.....not really...it just seems that way>> Calculates that way too, my friend. QQQQ closed at $25.74 on March 9. As of yesterday's close, QQQQ had rallied 36% in just two months. That rate of rise calculates to a 216% annual return. At that rate, we will be back up to the highs achieved prior to the March 2000 bubble implosion in a little over a year. There's zero chance of that for sure. We won't see those levels equaled in real-dollar terms for another 15 to 20 years. That's how all bubbles work......once the implosion starts, you can bet the farm that whatever market you are looking at will lose 78% to 85% of its value in a few years, and will not equal the previous highs for at least a quarter century (more typically, 30 years or even more). WS

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (4677)	5/7/2009 8:32:51 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4814

<< the fundamental will catch up to the stock market but the stock market is on its way >> I agree, but I think the market is "on its way" DOWN, not up. Aside from the fact that the market has come too far too fast, the fundamentals are considerably worse than the market thinks. For example, the imagined rise in consumer spending is total nonsense, and largely the result of some very creative accounting. Also, history is NOT in favor of a summertime rally, in part because we are in a secular bear market. During bear markets, summers have, on average, produced considerable losses, and this is particularly true during the current bear market. Unemployment will get worse for another year at least. Credit markets are still not functioning, although they are no longer paralyzed. There is a relief rally underway in real estate, but that will be stomped on within a few months. Things will go from bad to really bad in China very soon for a number of reasons, and civil disorder or even civil war is not at all unthinkable there within the next several years. You heard it here first: this summer, the shorts will do considerably better than the longs. And, we are near or at the top. WS