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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph G. who wrote (7848)	10/27/1997 6:19:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Joe, Mohan and others on this thread I will join Iqbal in offering you my congratulations in calling this decline. I feel fortunate in being substantially in cash because I sold into strength in the July/August time frame--and posted here to that effect-- though I did go back into the market to the tune of about 30% during September/October. These positions have been hit though I am somewhat protected because of the OEX puts that I bought as insurance. What I need to now figure out is whether and when to re-enter this market -- I would do this if the market were correcting but not if we have started a bear market. My belief is that this is a correction and I am glad that it has occurred in part because it offers me the opportunity to re-enter at lower prices and second because it will improve sentiment which is something that I give a great deal of weight to in deciding when to enter and exit the market. Part of the reason that I exited the market in summer was because sentiment had become overly optimistic. I agree that we had over-valuation and in some instances still have over-valuation--but there are quality stocks that have come down enough to make it attractive once things stabilize. The real question is to what extent the recent problems in the ASEAN countries are likely to have a prolonged impact on the US in a manner that would impact the economy here. My problem is that when Mexico under-went its down-turn there was barely any impact on US equities that were of a lasting nature--and Mexico is a more significant trading partner than the ASEAN countries. So unless we are looking at something that has a more profound impact with the current crisis, I must assume that this was used as an excuse for a correction. Given the interest rate environment and profit picture for US companies--only an outside event could cause this type of down-turn. Would anyone care to offer me their views on this supported with facts as opposed to blanket statements that we are headed down, no matter what?? Joe -- responses to your questions: >>Tom, speaking of jokes - you don't have a buy signal yet? Now that is a really good joke!! >>Seriously, your system, or anyone's, could not have been tested for trading halts. Do you think it may affect it?<< Don't know whether it will affect it--I know that I went short the the day when the futures opened limit down--and stayed short until today and then went flat today when I had a 40 point profit as required by the system. Unfortunate in that the futures continued down another 40 points after I went flat--but such is life. Regards