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Technology Stocks : The New QUALCOMM - Coming Into Buy Range -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (5166)	5/8/2009 1:53:19 AM
From: DanD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9129

Just thinking out loud here and I am curious to hear from others about how they think that the wireless market will evolve in the next 5 years or so. I predict more of the same: Unpredictability. Dan D.

To: slacker711 who wrote (5166)	5/8/2009 8:12:58 AM
From: quartersawyer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9129

That's handsets, but your perception of a flattening (if not dead) end rings too pessimistic. The company sees it somewhat like you do, scouting the forks in the road, focusing powerful research capabilities. If their vision is good there's big growth according with global upgrading and people's expanding use of wireless. Is that more challenging than it was in "the late 90's"? Or is it the vision that you're pessimistic about?

To: slacker711 who wrote (5166)	5/8/2009 9:45:20 AM
From: carranza2	4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9129

Applications requiring more processing power will IMO be the next wireless frontier. Apple has it exactly right, Q is sucking wind on this angle. But applications are not Q's strength because Q has always focused and done well with how wireless functions while firms like Apple focus on what wireless devices do. Getting these increasingly complex applications to work seamlessly and at lightning speed is where I see that Q's advantage lies, particularly as these increasingly sophisticated devices and applications will become not just playthings of the affluent but necessities. The market for them will be enormous. The iPhone is a great example of a terrific phone working on a terrible standard. And it is a great success. Imagine the iPhone on a top notch Verizon network optimized for lightning speed. The market for these devices will be huge. I think your vision of what a cellular device can do is accurate but a bit restricted. Apple's imagination and design/marekting talent [the Apple applications stores you see in major urban areas was a brilliant idea; they will become much more numerous] coupled to Q's wireless engineering skills will drive wireless computing to places we cannot yet imagine. The standard will be set by these two. That is where I see wireless things going FWIW.

To: slacker711 who wrote (5166)	5/8/2009 10:46:50 AM
From: Jim Mullens	Respond to of 9129

Slacker, re: VZ on Wireless Market evolving / Future of CDMA "...how they think that the wireless market will evolve in the next 5 years or so." snips>>>> "Pricing is inhibiting the growth of this market. Quite frankly, this is likely to change even before LTE." "In 2018 or 2020, we're likely to still have a 1x network." Data services on the 3G EV-DO have a "much shorter lifespan," Melone said. "We'll quickly migrate to LTE." XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX Verizon Wants LTE ASAP CDMA thru at least 2018 Unstrung News Analysis May 7, 2009 \| Dan Jones \| BOSTON -- Verizon Wireless CTO Tony Melone says that it is in his company's best interest to move to nationwide LTE as soon as possible and cut the pricing of mobile data services along the way, but that the operator is unlikely to stop CDMA-based voice services before 2018 at the earliest. Melone took the stage at Ericsson AB (Nasdaq: ERIC)'s annual capital markets day here in Boston this morning to talk about Verizon's view on Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology and how the wireless market will evolve as mobile broadband services become the norm. Ericsson is one of Verizon Wireless's two key infrastructure partners on the LTE deployment, along with Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU). (See MWC 2009: Verizon Picks LTE Vendors.) "It is in best interest to blanket the country with LTE as soon as possible," Melone said of the operator's aggressive LTE deployment plans. It will be the first U.S. operator to go commercial with LTE next year, if all goes to plan. Melone said the operator will "soon" move to "phase four" trials of LTE over 700 MHz. The first commercial markets will follow in 2010 with a rapid deployment planned in 2011 and 2012. He said Verizon wants to continue its history of being on the "leading edge" of wireless deployments. The company's growth and continued financial fitness show the wisdom of this strategy, he told the crowd. Melone's comments echo those of Roger Gurnani, senior VP of product development at Verizon Wireless. Gurnani told UNTV at the CTIA show in April that the operator would build out LTE in its nationwide footprint within two or three years of the 2010 launch. (See Verizon to Complete LTE Network by 2014?) You can watch the whole interview here: (go to link for video) Asked about the differences in mobile data pricing between Europe and the U.S., Melone said that prices are likely go down in the U.S. as faster wireless broadband becomes more prevalent. "Pricing is inhibiting the growth of this market. Quite frankly, this is likely to change even before LTE." The future of CDMA Melone was asked whether the coming LTE network would make Verizon's current 2G (or 2.5G if you prefer) and 3G CDMA networks redundant. Interestingly, the 2G voice network is likely to hang on longer than the current 3G EV-DO network. Melone said that Verizon's 2.5G CDMA 1xRTT network is "very stable" for voice services. "In 2018 or 2020, we're likely to still have a 1x network." Data services on the 3G EV-DO have a "much shorter lifespan," Melone said. "We'll quickly migrate to LTE." The CTO once again reiterated that the company doesn't expect to spend much more on LTE than it currently does on deploying 3G services. "The investment will be significant, but it displaces what we would spend on 3G." The operator has, of course, already laid the foundation for LTE with its $9 billion spend on 700 MHz spectrum for its proto-4G rollout. "We believe that is essentially enabling our growth for the next 10 years," Melone said. — Dan Jones, Site Editor, Unstrung unstrung.com;

To: slacker711 who wrote (5166)	5/8/2009 12:16:14 PM
From: Jim Mullens	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9129

Slacker, re: Wireless market evolution / pessimism on QCOM’s long term prospects Perhaps the macro economic / equity market doldrums have caused your “glass half full” attitude, as initially exhibited with this recent erroneous observation of yours >>>> ” future growth of the WCDMA market...the bulk of which is now behind us” Factoid >>>> A 5 year WCDMA unit CAGR of 22.4% (even w/ Modoff’s significantly reduced forecast) WCDMA units in millions 2008 266 2009 353 2010 451 was 660 2011 579 was 826 2012 654 2013 731 In addition to the many QCT / QTL issues discussed in detail in the recent thread, I believe C2 and ¼ sawer have emphasized many other areas of wireless growth that counter your pessimism. IMO, we have hardly touched the surface of how the future of mobile wireless will benefit mankind the world over. C2 says >>> ….”Getting these increasingly complex applications to work seamlessly and at lightning speed is where I see that Q's advantage lies, particularly as these increasingly sophisticated devices and applications will become not just playthings of the affluent but necessities. The market for them will be enormous. The iPhone is a great example of a terrific phone working on a terrible standard. And it is a great success. Imagine the iPhone on a top notch Verizon network optimized for lightning speed. The market for these devices will be huge.” Enhancing the mobile experience will be the primary benefit to the developed world. ….better / faster / cheaper- speed, applications, displays (Mirasol, etc) – the whole internet world (home /office- work/ pleasure) always on and with you. Enabling the developing world ($ rural areas) with communications (high speed to boot) / internet connectivity /computing power- …….just enormous potential for productivity gains and economic growth / human well being. What are the enormous possibilities within the medical / health monitoring arena itself? -- The Best is yet to come--