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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (49792)	5/8/2009 4:18:16 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 218118

Yes the economy is messed up. But what has been reduced are most of the worst case possibilities. Massive unemployment is likely. Massive bank failure is not likely. Three months ago and people were not just talking about cash and gold, but massive shorts of everything and also allocating to canned food and shot guns. Now most short allocations are off, and people are looking at energy and mining stocks, which financials will make it, etc. We have gone from Gloom and Doom to just Gloom. Of your list, 2,3, and 5 get solved with a little inflation and taxation / restriction of 'entitlements' (deficits, debt, and entitlements) #4 unemployment, gets solved by government hiring, a lower US Dollar to shift import/export mix, and hiring people for jobs at lower pay than their previous job. Energy gets helped short term by natural gas from shale, longer term by technology and investments in both conservation and new sources. That leaves the oligarc hy and incompetent Fed and Treasury.

To: carranza2 who wrote (49792)	5/8/2009 5:36:29 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218118

just in in-tray the yen has become a longer tem short idea. both the curent acct. surplus and the private sector savings rate are disappearing in Japan, which still is weighed down by the by far biggest load of government debt in the G7. since it is planning on spedning even more, and may in the future need foreign financing if these trends sontinue, there is the 'less painful solution' that will increasingly become a focus: devlaue the yen. as to SPX, two upcoming cycle turn dates, today, and the 15th (i suspect the 15th is more important). an opportunity to attempt another short with a tight stop, based on time rather than price.