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To: qdog who wrote (5029)	10/27/1997 6:31:00 PM
From: IKM	Respond to of 152472

The percentage decline in '87 was much bigger. We're not there yet. If he acts too soon, he risks removing all fear from stocks and then for sure he'll get his irrational exuberance. His timing and the nature of what the Fed does is not a given, except maybe in his mind. The Fed has built its credibility regarding keeping inflation in check very carefully, and will not squander it easily. Though the Fed has certainly gone through numerous scenario analyses since '87, they are probably all sweating blood just now, because scenarios in economics always miss a key, unexpected variable someplace. Not a given the Fed will act early tomorrow, but expect a lot of words.