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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: anializer who wrote (34428)	5/9/2009 1:26:11 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78728

Thanks for the posts, anializer. Lot to consider in there.

To: anializer who wrote (34428)	5/9/2009 1:44:17 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78728

Anializer - i like the way you approach stocks and buy profitable companies at below tangible book when. From you list I like MPW and will look at it. OCNF I disqualify because of the weird sharebuying agreement with Ya Global , as they seem to use that as an ATM to pay bills and they use that ATM every day. i'd rather go with other shipping stocks, as there are plenty. So far I only own SBLK in this space. I don't understand the shipping secotr well, though. Some companies still show good profits, other show losses - maybe the difference between LT charters and spot charter? I think they are a good way to play the economic rebound in China. Stocks I own- consumer staples: UL, NSRGY, PM,BTI Medical; MCK, COV, KND, BDX, CAH, AOB Utilities: SWX,AEP, HOO, AWK other: SBLK, GTE I did sell out CPO and TOT and a lot of other stuff went out the window on the recent bounce. I traded some small cap stuff in the later stage of the rally but don't want to overstay the party .In 50% cash right now. I agree that we are overdue for a bounce.

To: anializer who wrote (34428)	5/9/2009 3:01:40 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78728

Auto dealerships: "Auto Dealerships - who the hell would want to buy auto dealerships?" Up until the past eight months, they have been very profitable for their owners. Most profits come from service, major repairs (e.g. if they have collision shops), and esp. used-car sales. I believe many people wrongly presume it's new car sales where they make their profits. If people are keeping their cars longer to reduce their household debt, then used-car sales will not grow, and that could hurt the dealerships I'm out of the dealerships now, still following them on a watch list though - Penske, ABG, LAD, etc. Right now, I'm going with the loan companies, i.e. ACF. Less demand for loans if people pay them down. Otoh, maybe the default rate on loans will stabilize or improve with improving economy.

To: anializer who wrote (34428)	5/19/2009 4:43:21 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78728

Fwiw, I've decided to start doubling down on my MPW position with the intent to lower my breakeven point. Last quarter's report seemed okay to me: birmingham.bizjournals.com Auto retailers (e.g. LAD) have been doing well recently, possibly somewhat because "cash for clunkers" gets media attention as politicians consider this program. Also perhaps somewhat because the GM/Chrsler dealership closures may ultimately be beneficial to the large/diversified publicly-held dealerships. I gave up on holding these auto dealership stocks earlier, and now it seems a little late to be reentering. However, as I look at Penske, its business and the stock still have some attractive features. Penske is fairly innovative: they have the USA Smart franchise, and now I read that Avis will have car rentals at selected Penske car dealerships/collision operations. As with all these publicly-held dealerships, the positives are they have several brands, their dealerships are dispersed around the country (PAG in UK, Germany, elsewhere too), and people will still be buying new cars or used cars or having need for collision repair. The main concern I see is that they all have large amounts of debt on their balance sheets, and the d/e ratio is, to my mind, very high. That the stocks of all these companies in this sector are up sharply from lows, I interpret to be that the market is saying now that it looks like these companies will all come through the troubling times we are now in. I'll take a few shares of PAG today. Still wary though: PAG has about tripled from lows of two months ago. finance.yahoo.com

To: anializer who wrote (34428)	6/5/2009 3:18:20 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78728

I see the Journal is reporting that GM will announce tomorrow (Fri) that Penske will be buying Saturn. That might be a good thing for Penske (PAG). Mr. Penske has a history of buying troubled auto-related businesses and turning them around. (example: Detroit Diesel) And PAG seems to be doing very well with their solo franchise of the Smart car, so there's some indication that they might have the ability (marketing/sales/service) to take on Saturn. I am holding only a few shares of PAG, may add more. The auto retailers, unlike some other retailers, have been doing pretty well the past few months: finance.yahoo.com