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Strategies & Market Trends : Playing the QQQQ with Terry and friends. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (4738)	5/9/2009 11:27:55 AM
From: jrhana	Respond to of 4814

Message 25633230 Message 25633233

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (4738)	5/9/2009 11:53:18 AM
From: catflu2™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4814

mickey mouse TA....

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (4738)	5/10/2009 9:56:32 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 4814

I can't comment on the Elliott wave structure. I am not a wavester, and frankly don't put much stock in Elliott wave methods anyhow. I find it too subjective and ambiguous. As for sentiment, that is most consistent with a pullback. Market tops are almost invariably accompanied by excessive bullishness, and conversely, market bottoms are characterized by excessive bearishness. One measure of sentiment is the put/call ratio. The put/call becomes increasingly valuable as it reaches extremes, and it tends to be a leading indicator. Message 25632673 The 10 sma and 21 sma of the put/call are now reading about 0.80. That is excessive bullishness, my friend. The put call hasn't been that low in over three years. Here's what happened the last 3 times the put/call dipped below 0.8: Jan 2004: QQQQ pulled back -16% Dec 2005: QQQQ pulled back -14% Jan 2007: QQQQ pulled back -19% Each of these pullbacks were multi-month corrections of about 8, 5, and 8 months, respectively. I see no reason to believe this time it will be different. Big money sells into rallies, and that's exactly what has been going on. They sell to designated bagholders, all the while whipping up enthusiasm via analyst upgrades and financial press musings about the end of the recession being in sight. To each his own I guess, but me, I don't fancy being the designated bagholder. Other sentiment indicators are consistent with this picture. The Dow Jones sentiment indicator has increased (i.e., gotten more bullish) about 25% so far this year. That indicator analyzes articles in 15 major daily newspapers in the U.S. It uses a numerical scale from 0 to 100 to express the balance of sentiment in articles about the economy. solutions.dowjones.com WS

To: da_cheif™ who wrote (4738)	5/12/2009 10:23:04 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 4814

More on sentiment: finance.yahoo.com "Extreme investor optimism, or pessimism, tends to signal a change in direction. The current 30%+ rally was born amidst the doomsday atmosphere surrounding the March lows. Conversely, the biggest bear market since the Great Depression started its reign at Dow 14,000, when financial stocks were the top performers and investors couldn't be more optimistic about their future prospects. The current rally has rekindled this optimism to a surprisingly large extent. Wall Street, along with stock markets around the globe, was quick to regain its confidence. The Wall Street Journal's May 11th front page headline read: 'World Regains Taste for Risk.' This should serve as a red flag for savvy investors."