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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James A. Shankland who wrote (9827)	10/27/1997 8:12:00 PM
From: TonyE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

you said: We are in for a very long haul before people regain <confidence> in stocks, even at today's closing levels. Too many want out, if prices recover. That's a very bad sign. And I doubt there is that much cash left on the sidelines. ------------ Some more thoughts on that: The thing is that interest rates are low and any chances that the Fed might have raised them soon are nil after today. You are gonna have deflation in interest rates. Also, the Federal Deficit is peanuts this year, so there won't be that many new treasuries running around. Hmmm, this means even more buyers for the existing bonds? Good for my mom, I guess ;-) If people sell equities and move into bonds, it will further lower yields, thus making bonds even less attractive for investors. Firms, in the meantime, can get cheap capital on the bond market without flooding with more equities. And if equities drop, they can buy them back at low prices. Any capital flight from Hong Kong is likely to end up in the USA. Bottom line? More and cheaper capital which lowers the cost of expansion and borrowing for business. Nothing else has changed. Labor is still tight, but raises can be had without fear that Alan Greenspan will increase rates ("the boy that cried inflation too many times...") since he will not risk a business downturn. Another issue -which affects this thread- is the fact that China, Japan, India, etc... are headlong expanding their networking. It's a lot cheaper than building more roads or any other infrastucture and has a better rate of return. They know that and nothing short of war will change that. So, with all of this, I think that most people just have no idea what the hell 'high tech' is. Just like there are IC chips and potato chips, you can't group internetworking with airplanes and medical imaging systems. And if nothing else has changed, why did so many idiots dump on Cisco today. I'm I the idiot (I doubt it) or is the herd once again repeating the folly of '94 and spring of '97? I think that 'confidence' will return as soon as folks realize that the hysteria over a 6% loss is just the newsmedia selling commercials on air time. Tony

To: James A. Shankland who wrote (9827)	10/27/1997 8:47:00 PM
From: Jim Garrison	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

James: Either CNBC or CNN has interesting perspective - dow is back where it was in may and nasdaq where it was in august. One thing you can count on, stock prices fluctuate. I'm ignoring stops (i dont sell into meltdowns) and will be looking for some bargains later on in the week. It's October, remember? IMO Probably full recovery may have to wait until new year after tax loss selling and money managers records locked in. And here i thought i finally bought CSCO at good price around 78! Oh well. Good trading, jim garrison PS The best reaction i saw on SI went something like "Can someone check to see if emc is still in business? I looked at the quote and wondered."