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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Aegis who wrote (9809)	10/27/1997 7:39:00 PM
From: Frank Povoski	Respond to of 70976

Thing don't look good. Globix S&P futures maxed down Australia -10% New Zealand - 9.23% Japan - 1.53%

To: David Aegis who wrote (9809)	10/27/1997 7:44:00 PM
From: davesd	Respond to of 70976

David, in 1996...what was the first indication that we were headed into a slowdown??? 300mm pilot lines will not be enough to make the numbers for the major semi cap companies. Plus 300mm pilot lines will not happen till end of 1998 and 1999. dave

To: David Aegis who wrote (9809)	10/27/1997 8:04:00 PM
From: davesd	Respond to of 70976

David, these DRAM companies are all running a business trying to make money with limited capital. People think that DRAM fabs have so much money that they can keep spending on upgrades till the cows come home. These companies are much like MU....they have only so much cash and they have to use it wisely. With all the new technologies that are coming up in the next few years, it would be silly for these guys for these guys to get too leveraged in a business where there is no profit for quite awhile. MU postponed their new fab in Lehi...Why don't they invest in .25u technology? Because they only have $1,3 Billion for the 300mm conversion. The asain currency is heading lower, reducing the buying power of Asia and the interest rates may have to go up to support the currency, which makes the situations even worse. So how do you tell your banker that you want to buy new equipment with your devalued currency will paying higher interest rates....and ontop of that you are building a fab that will be losing money right from the start. It's a tough sell. dave