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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: the navigator who wrote (20330)	5/13/2009 1:52:11 AM
From: axial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71475

[1] Reference to known facts, using the hierarchy of evidence [2] Reference to logic [3] Reference to history and the sciences [4] Reference to probability We can never see and know all the dynamics. If they were given to us, we still couldn't calculate how they would interact and in a flash, they'd change again. That's why there are Black Swans, and that's why we save for a rainy day: reserves are Everyman's answer to randomness and unpredictability. There are always potential combinations of events that exceed our vision. We've learned much, but still don't understand and cannot see Dark Matter. Time is change; tectonics are invisible and may bring clusters of events. We only begin to understand what has happened after it's happened. Man's worst failing is his lack of humility. We know what we know, and we see what we see. We don't see, and we don't know: that's why we invent gods. They're a manifestation of our need to supply causation for what we can't see and comprehend. Take all you know, apply your best understanding, and calculate the probabilities. If you're lucky, you may be right. But it may not save you. Jim