ft may be off track. the western press usually are.
i directly observe that china is neither unhappy nor full of angry youth.
i must figure that out of 1.3 billion folks, a few hundred thousand books along the lines of "the china that can say no" can certainly be sold, but
for the vast and absolute majority, i discern that the following would be true views
(i) japan and europe are has-been-and-now-non-issues
(ii) stay away from russia, for it will not be consequential in the course of evolution, but in the mean nasty time leave them squared off with the europeans
(iii) watch india, but not to bother and fuss
(iv) do not fight america, and do not go along with america, no point doing either, for there is nothing america can do to china
(v) never interrupt your competitors when they are doing so well in making all the mistakes they possibly can, and more
(vi) positioning is everything, fighting is nothing
(vii) the prize is no longer this planet, but the solar system, at 10 strategic cents of RMB on each sorry dollar
as events seem to be trending, and as wen jia bao explicated, china will contribute to global stability by keeping china on course, and something or other about peaceful rise, soft power, etc etc
i am trying to remember america winning a war against china, directly or by proxy, and i could not think of a single instance even given all the material disadvantages of china in the last 250 years
and i think, amongst the big powers, and that counts out europe, japan, india, and brazil, leaving only the usual suspects usa, russia and china, which ever two decides to fight each other, the third wins by default
further, which ever sorry outfit resorts to nuke, game over for all
and so, all that is left is (i) economics, (ii) strategic positioning, and (iii) outer space. all of (i) through (iii) requires national planning, industrial policy, and inexpensive everything from labour to capital to intellectual property.
the only thing china will likely prove by minding its own business is as a by the way show up the usa to be a fiction, and a bad one at that, an accidental experiment founded on the basis of bloodletting thievery that is now at end-game, take or give, 15-35 years. the experiment has now turned against its own, from the inside.
the by the people for the people and liberty for all nonsense has gone on for 250 years, and amazing that none bothers to point out that the emperor has no cloths on.
i do not write the above to be confrontational at all, but merely pointing out what seems obvious in the strategic competition between a once-every-800-years systemically reforming culture and a 250 years young pop culture, and perhaps only to me.
as to china anguishing over its reserves, i dunno, they say they are, but mathematically, should china manage to spend half the purchasing power of its reserves, and burn up the rest as so much worthless iou that they are, what of it? china would still educate, produce, save, invest, reform, and remain a primarily continental and domestically-oriented economy the very next day.
what happens to the debtor that requires continuing infusion of debt in order to fight fruitless wars in the middle of nowhere against no one in particular with no end in sight while trying to pacify one or another domestic constituency who feels having birthright to borrow, squander, complain, and spin.
the monetary-econo-financial tsunami is a sign of all that is not right, but it itself is not the metastasising disease.
jmho, and above is my watch n brief guidelines to self, and so far no reason to change script. |
