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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ajtj99 who wrote (202249)	5/14/2009 2:02:30 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

aj, thanks for the update. i get the over sold bounce idea (which is why i didn't do what i would've done 2 months ago - buy SRS in the morning and be handed my behind), but i'm wondering if it lasts a day or longer. it sounds like you are waiting for the market to give a clue and you are focusing on NYA 5795 to give that clue. it is ~5730 right now - so that's a lot of up move to test 5795. i think we may get the typical IYR mania run up into the close today and that's usually a low risk, high reward trade. however, if opex ends up pushing the market higher tomorrow, that could throw a wrench in that plan. right now it is struggling to get over $32 (the resistance you pointed to earlier).

To: ajtj99 who wrote (202249)	5/14/2009 3:08:19 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

ajtj99, unless we get an end of day ramp, it looks like NYA isn't going to hit 5795. if we finish flat or with a ramp to, say, NYA 5775, do you see tomorrow being an up day going into opex? i think end of day today may be a great buy point on SRS or it might inflict some deep wounds over the short term. if tomorrow is an up day, end of day friday looks to have a great risk / reward going into next week. if i had to guess, given the nasty sell offs this week, the PPT will likely want to close the week on a good note (at least a "better than bad note," anyway) so fear doesn't fester over the weekend.