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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (202375)	5/15/2009 10:55:07 AM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

People really are that stupid. They believe the fallout from popping the biggest series of bubbles in history is a slightly worse than normal recession, that lasts as long as a typical recession. This ain't over by a long shot. This is 1931.

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (202375)	5/15/2009 11:15:03 AM
From: TheStockFairy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

logically you can't have 500k layoffs every month forever. so you are closer to the bottom of the layoffs than you are to the start, that's for sure. those people aren't spending and the people that aren't layed off aren't spending either. so at some point, things have to start looking better overall. from the looks of things, consumers have really really retrenched in their spending already.

To: Smiling Bob who wrote (202375)	7/31/2009 5:14:19 PM
From: Smiling Bob	Respond to of 306849

Mind Over GDP: Economist Says Recession Over But Psychology Key to Recovery Posted Jul 31, 2009 12:49pm EDT by Aaron Task Related: ^DJI, ^GSPC, SPY, DIA, TBT, TLT Friday's better-than-expected second-quarter GDP report is fueling talk about the end of the recession, which may become a self-fulfilling prophecy, says Christopher Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "It's so psychological right now," Rupkey says, joking his old economics professors are junking their regression models in favor of psychology courses. "I don't want to shoot down the V-shaped recovery story because anything can happen and it is self-fulfilling." Rupkey does believe the recession probably ended in May or June and that third-quarter GDP will be positive, if only because inventories have been slashed so much; because of how GDP is calculated, just a slowing in their rate of decline could add as much as 4% to growth. "We should be 31 days into a positive GDP growth quarter," he says. More important than GDP is the Fed's industrial production data, which is next reported in Aug. 14, Rupkey says. "The minute that turns up," the recession is over. But the economist's optimism about the sustainability of the recovery is guarded in part for the same reason he's upbeat about the current quarter. "In the 1970s and 1980s businesses were flying blind," he recalls. "Now, everyone is pretty much on the same page....and the groupthink at the moment is ‘it's going to be a sluggish recovery'." That mindset is being fueled, in part, by Ben Bernanke's dour outlook, Rupkey says, suggesting regulators have to walk a fine-line between cheerleading and talking down -- especially in the age of instant information. ------ 95 Comments Showing comments 1 - 20 of 95Next you Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 31, 2009 12:55PM EDT It’s all in your mind: We had an imaginary boom, now we can have an imaginary recovery. Life is so much easier when nothing has to be REAL! report abuse you Yahoo! Finance User - Friday July 31, 2009 01:00PM EDT Yay our money isn't real, our problems aren't real... 10% unemployment? bah not real - it must be seasonal. Second Quarter profits from selling assets? yay this won't ever crash.