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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: valueminded who wrote (97612)	5/16/2009 2:23:13 PM
From: koan	Respond to of 116555

>>What do you think ? I can not see how we can have trillion + deficits w/o an impact on the value of the dollar ? If so, I am not sure other then commodities what safe plays would be. What is your thinking. thanks>> I agree with you on all of that and especially about stagflation. Maybe like the late 70's. The commodities, soft and hard have been rising against a basket of currencies I think. China is cornering the market on rare earths and has bought a lot of copper. I only own gold and silver Canadian stock wts right now and GBG wts are my favorite play. I also have CDE $2.50 Jan calls, but they are more danagerous (Kensington and rollback worries). And I am watching the commodities. I think the dollar will continue to fall, so I like gold and silver and maybe commodities soon. BWR sure has been a rocket and ML (copper). MFL has been good as well. Below is a debt chart for the last century. Look at how private debt dropped straight down from 1932 to 1948; and then look at how government debt dropped from 1948 to 1960. Even after all that government spending. We came out of the depression just fine! First the private debt dropped and then the public debt. Because of the stimulous of WWII and WPA. They are trying to recreate this scenario. I have no idea if it will work. Message 25648814