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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bentway who wrote (202730)	5/17/2009 2:07:03 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 306849

i used to believe that, until i consistently lost money betting against the TA guys and consistently made money betting with them. think about it like this... the big guys have programs to buy and sell stocks. the computer does what it is told. we know what they are doing by the results of what they do. the TA person tries to figure out when the big guys go in and change the program. it isn't perfect. the programs don't all change at once. extraordinary events change programs, too. but it gives you a frame work. there are also quick indicators that programs are being changed and people are making different decisions... aj called the end of the IYR rally at $32.40 or so - right here on this thread. he saw a negative divergence. someone who played that made 5% in pretty short order. knowing that the current trend is down means it is a good time to buy some inverses when the next rally starts fading or if the market starts dropping straight away on monday - especially if you are net long and want to protect your recent gains.