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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: phbolton who wrote (6149)	10/27/1997 10:14:00 PM
From: Jon Tara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Everyone please remember - you can always short SPY! Yes, it is boring, and has a low beta (1.0). Yes, you usually can't make a lot of money on it. But, today, you could have made about 7%, and with no worries about finding an uptick. When I am caught in a falling market, (which I wasn't as I was 100% cash going into this) and I have margin available, my immediate reaction is to short SPY first, and then start selling stocks. Shorting SPY quickly will help blunt the effect on the rest of your (long) portfolio.

To: phbolton who wrote (6149)	10/27/1997 10:30:00 PM
From: John Nowicki	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Be real careful about this crash, if it is based on a Hong Kong Domino effect. The Chinese Govt. can't afford for HK to tank within a year of their taking over...they would lose massive face, have troubles there, and most of all would lose credibility with Taiwan (in convincing them on "One Govt., Two Systems"). If it gets really bad, look for Bejing to start buying (very large, very public) amounts of HK dollars out of their huge foreign reserves, clobbering the speculators, and possibly causing a ramp up as quickly as the crash hit. My bet...they'll intervene by Wed.-Thurs. if this keps up. John Nowicki (BTW---Roger, do you see BROC holding or gaining from now?)