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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50216)	5/19/2009 9:42:40 PM
From: THE ANT	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217865

"U.S. Needs More Inflation to Speed Recovery, Say Mankiw, Rogoff " Boy do they have it wrong!Over the last 20 years assets inflated as interest rates were too low.There was inflation in everything we owned and steady prices in what we consumed.This new inflation will be in everything we consume and will kill asset prices.At most it will keep assets from going down to where they should have gone and will boom prices in what we consume, especially if the dollar goes down.Inflation of 10% with 30 year mortgage of 10% may = zero real rates but will still crush housing as people will not have the cash flow to make the payment.These guys are idiots.Minskys "stability breeds instability" and the Feds low interest policy turned a prexisting Asset/Wage ratio of lets say 1:1 too 2:1.This happens every 80 years.We are now in a situation like the fall of the Soviet Union.They opened the door just enough to let in a little light, their lies were exposed and the whole rotten structure crumbled.People know that debt can not stay at the level it is and thus the Asset/Wage ratio must return to 1:1.Inflation will not help Asset prices relative to wage prices.I agree with Elroy.The best way to destroy debt is pay it down and or wipe it out.This will allow a higher Wage/Asset ratio than the inflationary route

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50216)	5/20/2009 12:04:39 AM
From: prosperous	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217865

Yes, the sequencing of rolling money between cash, gold, real estate will be a tricky exercise, although one could not lose by keeping some amount in each. They key is to have enough cash to live through the deflation first then roll out as the de-leveraging completes and we enter the next face. The real estate still needs to come down to match demand to be attractive. The stocks I think are cooked for a long time to come and we are looking at a few decades lost for investors by the time they realize indexing/buy+hold/dca and all other good things they learned only work in free markets. Man these economists from Princeton and Harvard seem to live in a parallel universe, what do they feed them there? Mankiw, Bernake, Rogoff (although Volcker and Bogle also attended Princeton to balance out) fortunately Greenspan went to NY Univ :-)

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50216)	5/20/2009 3:35:01 AM
From: elmatador	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217865

Japan GDP drops 15,2% Mar. 2008 to Mar. 2009. Return to natural size will speed up and reshapes the economic landscape of the planet.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50216)	5/20/2009 9:48:29 AM
From: Riskmgmt	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217865

<<whatever will happen would be a variation of 1929 with fiat money (as opposed to 1929 gold-linked) difference, which may change the numbers indicated but the the truth that the numbers measure imo, recommendation: save gold, ride the deflation, then buy real estate in secure locations with true yields, and do so on sorry leverage realistically, the switch to gold and real estate can happen at the same elapsed time, and leverage can be astutely added by and by, backed by gold, to buy more real estate>> Probably as good a plan as any and better than most. It gives me headaches trying to figure all this out. Frankly, I made a lot more money before I got so sophisticated and knowledgeable. Think I was happier too. Maybe, dumb and happy isn't so bad:}