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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (87374)	5/19/2009 7:58:45 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

I've been flat for a little bit, except gold stuff. The rally went to the 200 MA target quickly, although I've been thinking of taking an arb position tomorrow that gives a huge profit in a month. Just can't figure out what's wrong with GM arbs that are supposed not to provide such opportunities. The put/call parity trade is normally risk free, as it is completely market neutral. Something to do with the cash -g- GM stock traded at $1.27, $1 calls traded at 27c, while $1 puts traded at 42c. This gives time premium of 42c to $1 puts and 0 to $1 calls. The put/call parity trade collects the difference between put and call time premiums by entering a risk-free arbitrage position (in this case, short puts, long calls, short stock). 42c on a $1.27 stock is not bad at all. -g- Message 25655746

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (87374)	5/19/2009 8:51:34 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Yeah, there are a few levels. One is 950, others are your levels, finally, there is 1014. There is some potential for the Summer rally to 1014, after a respectable dip. It seems the top might arrive in July, timing is not right yet. -g-

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (87374)	5/20/2009 5:26:21 AM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

This is not very bullish. In fact, it plain sucks. -ng- IMHO the opportunity to load up and make a buck on the bull side has passed, but the hope and printing can sure drive stocks up further, and the trend remains favorable. There are major technical hurdles from mid 900-s to low 1000-s on the SPOOS. I just stay in cash, instead of trying to capture the last 5-10% of this mega-rally. The bearish bets are also dangerous because of record money printing, but may be worth a try later on. -g- Gonna trade that GM options Arb opportunity today, while I remain market neutral. Spectacular 20% a month for nothing, a risk free market neutral put/call parity trade.