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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50240)	5/20/2009 9:31:46 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217879

player #2 end of message, ala "knowing" w/ nicholas cage: where this is going in the very end is repudiation of the currency, but it will affect all fiat currencies, not only the dollar (they all use the dollar as their 'reserve' after all). iow, these debts that now look so enticing to money seeking a 'safe haven' will never be paid, and the markets will realize it at some point. the only way to protect against that is to do what TobagoJack is doing - regularly buy physical gold. always take a part of your trading winnings and put them into gold, preferably on pullbacks, but if you buy regularly you get a good average price anyway. we can not know when exactly the system will keel over completely, but it's a good bet that it will happen, because it has always happened historically. we clearly are a giant step closer to that point now than we used to be, but we're not there yet. if i were to guess, the fiscal and monetary crisis of the West will probably start in the UK or Ireland or both, and from there radiate outward. (Spain, Greece, Austria...). the US will eventually be dragged into the same maelstrom, but i doubt it will be where this starts. so you could perversely even see another period of extraordinary strength in both the dollar and US treasury debt before everything goes up in flames. the crisis part one episode has already shown how markets prioritize in times of rising uncertainty - they first shun the weakest links in the chain.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50240)	5/20/2009 11:31:38 PM
From: Riskmgmt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217879

Hello TJ Well, your post cheered me up no end. Crystal clear now. <<gold shares, gold, platinum, real estate, … and general equities >> Got almost all of those so I can relax now and stop trying to figure all this #hit out. :} Oh, what a minute, another post, there is more player 2, oh God, <<you could perversely even see another period of extraordinary strength in both the dollar and US treasury debt before everything goes up in flames. the crisis part one episode has already shown how markets prioritize in times of rising uncertainty - they first shun the weakest links in the chain>> everything up in flames, but he doesn't include those above right? <<gold shares, gold, platinum, real estate, … and general equities >> . Think I need another glass of wine.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50240)	5/20/2009 11:49:21 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 217879

Player # 2 makes an excellent point about the immense debt in USD, and the effects it will have. There is a possibility (maybe 10-15% ?) that there will not be enough printing in the next few years to devalue the dollar significantly. So we could have a Japan-like weak deflation for a number of years. Number of years may be a number n, ranging from 0 to ? n may be as large as...10 (lost decade) Note that Japan tried a number of moves and could not easily get out of deflation. Note that this would also mess up a large number of people. ********** Should swine flu or some military activity occur which impacts trade, the world would be pushed into a flight to safety and deflation.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (50240)	5/21/2009 5:39:54 PM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 217879

TJ Not sure if you follow Caracommunity but someone sent me an email, questioning my flavor of faith. Bill Cara calling for a final rally in gold/silver in his post on 5/19 Do you concur? If so, then do we need to be in highly liquid gold/silver, eg shares In the immediate future, I believe there will be a final rally in gold and silver, probably starting this week, reaching quickly into the $980-1000 level, silver possibly to $17, and oil to $65, based on a falling $USD, which I think will fall to just under 80 over the next several weeks or months. I do not believe the S&P 500 will rally past 950 or the DJIA past 9100 in this short-term cycle. This final action over the next couple weeks is probably a good time to sell into strength as prices come to you. caracommunity.com -D