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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (306324)	5/22/2009 6:45:41 AM
From: Bearcatbob	2 Recommendations Respond to of 793868

I agree - but that is an inflation play. The markets are up too. Inflation is what Team Obama needs to get the markets going. The markets are still good. Gold is an early warning. Below are some predictions I sent to my friends yesterday. Predictions that are just my most humble opinion! ***************************************** I sincerely hope that we are all here debating and jousting in the year 2016. The coming events of the impacts of the Obama administration will prove clearly which view of economics is correct. It is my clear, and I am sure very well understood position, that the policies we are embarking on are wrong headed and destructive. Just today the UK was put on a credit watch for a possible down grade as their debt is about to reach 100% of GDP - a path we are on. Here are things that I see will unfold with budget deficits and Cap and Trade: 1. Interest rates will rise and the economic recovery will be threatened. The rise in rates will be delayed by the Fed buying T Bills. This will be reflected in a rising gold price. 2. Energy prices will rise - particularly for electricity. The initial rise will be slowed by the current surplus of natural gas. Once this surplus is gone the price will game will be on. I would expect this to appear in Q1 of 2010. 3. Rising energy costs and Cap and Trade will cost jobs. It will be seen in the closing of energy intensive industries and the complete absence of new facilities. When the first union leader is told that his jobs are leaving courtesy of Team Obama the reality will start to hit. 4. Somewhere in the next 3 - 4 years - if there is an economic recovery there will summer brown outs from lack of power. 5. Somewhere around 2011 the wrong headedness of Obama economics will become clear and the outcry will lead to revision of the nonsense. Hopefully the damage will be minimal - but I fear the worst on this. 6. If Obama is lucky his policies will be delayed in implementation until after the 2010 mid term elections to save the Democrats in Congress. Their fear is already evident with blocking the funding for closing Gitmo. 7. When the reality hits the reaction of Obama will be interesting as the 2012 election nears. If he holds his course he will be dismissed in a landslide. Most likely he will adjust to survive. The major caveat in my prediction on the elections is the number of people who by 2012 will be totally dependent on Obama for their income. This possibility emphasizes prediction 1. I believe the man is an economic innocent. He is a non technical person who has never had a job in the world of manufacturing. The key to the coming elections will be as I have said before for the people in the moderate left to realize the love of their children is more important than their hatred of Bush. Bob