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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (97853)	5/23/2009 12:22:28 PM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Respond to of 116555

Prepare for a derivative driven Treasury bond crash, similar in size to a derivative driven subprime meltdown. A Black Swan that lurks behind the curtains. As usual, nobody knows when Toto pulls the curtains. Fixed for floating, floating for fixed 500 Trillion Notional. Real value of these swaps jumped THE MOST during 2008 crisis, outpacing CDS. Real value of derivatives jumped to 30 Trillion in December 2008 on increased volatility, becoming equal to the global stock market Cap and more than twice US GDP. I am sure it dropped a lot since then as volatility in all markets subsided on all injected liquidity. I am also quite positive that the notional values had an incredible jump higher to contain the damage by usual means. RIP JPM, BAC, C, and WFC. Ouch. The Derivative pyramid hardly deflated. We are at the Top. Gold to da moon. Yo, TBT is star performer this Year outperforming everything else. It reached a permanently high plateau when Mish was awarded the best Blog. Nice sell signal on T-s. Folks are still too scared to short the treasuries because of QE. CCC- because of that <GGG> The currency melt is on the way. It ain't deflation. It's Argentina, bankruptcy of the country. Inflation will pick up a lot.