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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (203886)	5/23/2009 11:04:43 AM
From: Drygulch Dan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

I still haven't seen the Depression this time. We flew to British Columbia, Canada and back to SFO, then to Orlando through Nashville from Oakland on SW Air and back through Houston's Hobby. In all of that travel, I saw a bunch of people traveling like there was no Depression or even no Recession, just places to go and people to see and things to buy. Where is this hidden recession ??? Maybe someday I will see it. Tonight I'll be back in the skies, traveling from San Jose to San Juan via JFK. I suspect the airborne economy will still appear upbeat and crowded.

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (203886)	5/23/2009 11:14:56 AM
From: Perspective	Respond to of 306849

My best guess as far as analogs go is that we're effectively in that 1930 calm-before-the-storm after the initial 1929 plunge. In both instances, the majors got halved, then screwed around for six months or so as the toxins from the financial collapse gradually worked their way into the real economy. If that is the case, Q3 or Q4 of this year should be a complete disaster. A similar phenomenon occurred in both the Nikkei crash and the Nasdaq crash. Big initial plunge - an entirely financial event - and then the slow-mo chain reaction into the real economy. `BC

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (203886)	5/23/2009 11:27:53 AM
From: ChanceIs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

>>> Many people compare now to the Great Depression. <<< I think that you are correct about this being a head fake. I see no reason not to test the November lows. In fact, after every major blowoff - and we had a major blow off - there has been a retest of what - only in the rearview - was the low. Soooooo November might have been the bottom (I place only 40% odds it was) but a retest of that low is very, very likely, regardless. I saw that Ross Stores posted very strong (record?) earnings Thursday. It makes sense - the cheap retailer in hard times. Shorting chickens is therefore risky - probably the protein source of choice in hard times. But then again there are soybeans/tofu. SAFM and TSN look like a lot of other charts. They have come too far too fast. Like the banks, their means to generate capital was 50% gutted with the big corn squeeze last summer. Their margins might return, but they will only be applied to 60% of the former business. A long time to heal story. Then again there is the Memorial Day spike and bust aspect. I am in for a short time only. Sure is good to see Buffalo Wild Wings tanking. I would think that wings would be a leading indicator for chickens. Chicken wings are gross. So much fat per unit of meat. I never saw the attraction.