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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: akidron who wrote (9858)	10/27/1997 11:39:00 PM
From: roly	Respond to of 70976

Akidron, THIS IS NOT TRUE. MIKE CHINOY REPORTING LIVE FROM HONGKONG CLAIMS WHAT YOU SAID IS NOT TRUE. THIS IS A BIG ISSUE SO MAKE SURE YOUR SOURCES ARE CORRECT BEFORE POSTING. Roly

To: akidron who wrote (9858)	10/27/1997 11:45:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

Akidron, Thanks for the update!! On the other points, I guess we can agree to disagree! 8^) BB

To: akidron who wrote (9858)	10/28/1997 1:20:00 AM
From: Winston Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Personal opinion, read at your own risk: I don't think Tung's administration is going to abandon its defense of HKD peg with greenbacks. Under current conditions, HK banks have no liquidity to support the market's free fall reason being for very 7.8 dollar they provide to the market, banks have to sell 1 US dollar in order to maintain the peg. Without enough greenbacks in reserve, peg can't be maintained. That being said, there is a huge catch! China, Taiwan and Japen in that order are the top three central banks with the largest greenback reserves. China has hundreds of billions. I believe China's Dollars reserves are with People's Bank, Shanghai and Hong-kong Banking Corp, Bank of Communications, Central Bank, possibly CitiCorp. There are two thoughts behind why HKD's are being attcked: 1. High real estate prices. (I am dididididizzy, man!!) 2. Hedge funds' speculations. Reason #1 is likely, then there is not too much to worry about the peg. Higher interest rate will slow down the real estate pace. With a high interest rate environment, equity market suffers. Actually, this will make HK more competetive in the long run in APAC. Reason number two is a speculation on my part. If it is true, then the hedge funds are trying to catch China unexpectedly. As we all know China just in recent years became a player on the international scene. RMB is not a international currency which can be exchanged freely. A large greenback reserve became a must. So it's not a surprise Central Bank and People's bank got tons of it. If hedge funds are indeed shorting HKD and Chinese goverment finally realizes someone is playing a game, retaliation will likely be quick and severe from Zhu's agency and China Central Banks. I personally believe HK will successfully defend HKD in the short run. With a stable currncy, equity market will find its bottom soon. PS HKD was pegged in 1984 by a British Gentleman(Greenwood?). PPS I added Amat today at $33

To: akidron who wrote (9858)	10/28/1997 6:39:00 AM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

<hk authorities just anounced that they are relaxing interest rate policy - in other words abondoning their defence of the hk $. this is pretty scary as it is a signal to all other asian markets that their currencies are not defendable> You mean all those other countries have successfully defended their currencies and now they can't? hahhahhah If thats defending I hate to see their armies in action! Here's my spin...this currency stuff if way over blown look at all the other devaluations that have happened...this all started way before we sold off here...eveythings fine right? Wrong...we're going down cause it was time to go down...nervous nellies abound...if your going to sell down another 15% just sell now and beat the rush! DAK