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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tradingfaster123 who wrote (121098)	5/28/2009 7:07:00 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206114

tradingfaster, I agree that its getting "less bad" in the natty supply/demand balance, but the fact remains that its still pretty bad on a cumulative basis. I predict we will get to an all-time high level of storage (for the given week of the year) in 2 weeks. We had about a quarter TCF less gas in storage in '07 than we do now. Over the last 10 weeks we have added 562 BCF to storage vs. a 5 year average build of 334 BCF over that span. To be bullish now would mean having the faith that the rig count reductions will start turning into some serious production reductions, damn soon. Do you think the production will start falling off at this point, and if so, why now given that it apparently has not really started to fall off very much so far? I'm not really bearish any more on natty, and when I see action such as today (almost 50 M shares traded in UNG, up 9%, with a fill that was better than expected but still pretty bearish), I am glad that I'm not short any more. But its also pretty hard for me to see the bull argument at this point.