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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (121217)	5/30/2009 11:06:12 AM
From: ChanceIs	7 Recommendations Respond to of 206334

>>>Higher interest rates and commodity prices are going to kill this market. ..... What to do? what to do....<<< I have now left two big piles of paper gains on the table....'02 and '08. I did much better this time taking profits. My Achilles heel both times was knowing that the fundamentals were so bullish. I knew crude would fall from $140, and that there was serious systemic risk. I was totally caught off guard by crude going sub $40. I am sure that there were hedge funds massively leveraged on the long side, and that they were nimble and got short. Evidence?? PWE has finally begun to bobble up. I sold no calls against that, thank goodness. (Did replace some CNQ with Oct $37 DBE calls - much less capital at risk and even more upside potential - I believe.) One simply must learn to short. Greenlaw understands this, although in general I think he is too quick to get on the dark side. I am getting better at bailing on my longs and getting short. I believe that there is still huge systemic risk. This is such a conundrum. Commodities are a hedge against inflation, and we might have seen some flight to safety in crude. Crude is not a panacea. Recall the massive crude equity sell off post 9/11. The crude equities will get pulled down in what I believe will be at least one more test of the Nov low. I am short US Treasuries - an inflation and US currency collapse hedge/profit opportunity. I am long some crude. I am 50% short equities...restaurants, commercial real estate, retailers (they have another round of layoff induced sales reductions coming), homebuilders and banks. Most of my shorts are a little underwater, but I have a net gain on the crude recovery. Again I am banking on another down leg.