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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (34644)	5/31/2009 3:14:35 PM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 78615

Making Sausages, Data in China online.wsj.com Disconnect between electricity consumption and started to show last year. Pretty hard to envision an economy growing by 7% when electricity demand is down.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (34644)	5/31/2009 3:26:20 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78615

Oil - Sorry, but I am firmly peak oiler, so I won't sell anything until we see $150-200 oil. We can disagree on this one. NOK - smartphones don't matter. Read "Innovator's dilemma". NOK is almost the only company worldwide that understands it and follows it to the letter. The only way to take over a market is from cheap side and NOK owns the cheap side. Even Chinese cannot budge NOK from there. It's a classical mistake by MSFT and Google to try to take over the high-margin expensive smartphone market. There are very few companies who managed to do this and almost all of them get marginalized through time. Apple? Apple is one of them, but even they will never keep high market share if they don't get the cheap end of the market. BRKB - you are right on BRK. I may sell my BRK position if better opportunities appear. It is one of the "safe" large cap holdings where I don't expect x2-x3 returns soon. Chinese. I disagree with you. I don't see any companies that I own to be dependent on stimulus. I am pretty sure all of them will be x5 or more in 5-10 years if they don't do stupid things. Which some of them do. That's why I sold quite a few.