To: Johnathan C. Doe who wrote (7351 ) 10/28/1997 4:16:00 PM From: Trey McAtee Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 21342
johnathan- i have heard both sides of the bull/bear debate, and i have to say i am inclined to go with the bulls. think about it. there was little underlying value in companies in 1929 compared to their stock prices. now, it is a little different. yes, there are companies like YHOO that are trading based on the future, just as companies were in 1929, but the majority of people are looking at valuations in a fundamental light. ben graham is not being ignored. if they werent we woudl be at 9500 on the dow. plus, the economic data is great. lower debt, low interest rates, low inflation, etc. worldwide, instead of moving towards protectionism, countries are moving to liberalization. of course there are exceptions like japan which says much and does little, but the results of that path are pretty clear. granted, if we move up above 8500 by december, i think we will be overvalued. then i will start to get worried. now, for the recession...greenspan made his comments, i think but cant remember exactly, more that a year ago. the market has gone up from there, but companies have also done better than expected and the economy has held up well. the thing is, we were shocked by 7% drop, or at least i was. mom and pop figured they were being squeezed and they decided to fight. now, if we get a 20% correction, then we start to get scared. that would hurt them. people would likely stop putting money into the market and instead into savings, MMarkets, and treasuries. and of course, they put off that new car, new computer etc. if that happens, we go into a recession. true, the market can be irrational. it can sell off when their is no reason too. but, by the same token, panic begets more panic, and when it spreads to the street...we all get hurt and people start jumping out of windows. good luck to all, trey