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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: RetiredNow who wrote (8826)6/1/2009 2:27:19 PM
From: Brumar89  Respond to of 86356
 
Probably would, because the markets would worry about supply being cut off. If we didn't hit their oil facilities and they kept selling into the market, the long term impact would be nil.

So as the dollar slides, producers increase the US dollar price of oil. That is a pricing action that is not related to supply and demand. So again, there are outside factors besides supply and demand that impact price.

Yeah, but its a currency exchange issue. Or you could look at it as a matter of supply and demand for oil AND dollars operating in conjunction. If the supply of dollars grows dramatically, the value of the dollar will fall and prices in dollars will rise. Not just the price of oil, the price of everything. The dollars fluctuations aren't something separate from supply and demand - its just that dollars are subject to supply and demand too.

Also, you are quite wrong about this being a free market.

I've actually said, sure it isn't completely free, but many markets aren't. I've said it doesn't matter - supply and demand are still in charge of price.

When prices were high, OPEC was fond of saying they were ready to keep the market well supplied with oil and that there was no reason for speculators to keep the prices so high. However, that was a deliberate sleight of hand. In actuality, OPEC producers were willing to keep the market supplied, as long as the market paid the prices they set! A real free market would act differently. Instead, each producer would be producing without limit and the market prices would set based on the marginal sales price of the last barrel sold, which means a freely floating market price. Don't tell me the price is set by supply and demand when OPEC says there's plenty of oil but only if you'll buy it at $X. That's not a free market.

Its a mistake to pay much attention to what OPEC says. What counts is what they do. Do they cut back production to support the price or not? That determines what will happen to the supply of crude.