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Biotech / Medical : Elan Corporation, plc (ELN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve kammerer who wrote (10155)	6/4/2009 12:50:22 AM
From: Lance Bredvold	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10345

In my opinion Elan won't run out of money. They have over two years before any debt is due, Tysabri sales are now better than breakeven, and the drug delivery business also is profitable. The only difficulty is that they continue to start expensive drug trials and have several more which could be engaged in profitably. I've felt for some time that management was not being prudent enough with their spending--I imagine a conflict between the scientific arm and the business people, but I really am confident that at worst, and in somewhat more normal markets, the current $2 Billion+ of debt could simply be rolled over. And more likely, they will simply pay it off from earnings. Tysabri still increases sales by 200 patients every week or $6mm annually shared about equally between BIIB and Elan with 30% going to sales and production costs. That's profit of roughly $2mm for every week which passes or $100mm annually. $100mm worth of predictable profit from a biotech with potential other drugs ought to be worth $2 Billion in equity all by itself. I have felt for a long time that Elan stock is worth nearly $20. Best, Lance