Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: buckbldr who wrote (121429)	6/6/2009 6:20:24 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206121

Buck, if you research any of the GOM drillers over the last 2-3 months you will see how seriously effected they are from slowdown. The other point about over building of rigs and contracts expiring is another issue that when you compound these you get a gut feeling that we are going back to a 97-99 time frame. Just look at the crude inventories, they are back to where they were at that 97-99 area. Regarding ESV at 20-24 bucks, I do believe on a historic basis and fundamental back drop of a contracting economy ESV is expensive at that area, but that is my opinion only. Look at HERO, look at PDE, look at RDC, look at ATW all of these GOM shallow drillers are in the same boat. Does that mean in this market BS enviroment where they take worthless/insolvent banks and run them up to incredible prices that ESV won't go to 50-60 or maybe 70....NO! There is a serious disconnect in this market with price to fundamentals. Remember I foresee a prolonged Japan style recession where the next shoe to drop will be deflation everywhere. I think OSX is incredibly overpriced and ESV is just an example because you continue to get upgrades and based on what? The short squeeze in oil? There are alot of people who bought energy at the top, Buffet is one of them, I just think it got so over extended that we have to go back to historic means to get a proper valuation. I have ZERO positions in the stocks currently, I am only playing Futures and Options. For the record if you believe we are coming out of the recession and growth will be returning, then ESV at 20 -25 is fine for a long term hold. Do I foresee June 2008 prices never. If we are heading into a prolonged slowdown where deflation is rampant, then ESV will see 10-15 before bottoming. IMVHO