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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE ANT who wrote (51048)	6/9/2009 4:18:20 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218730

27 years of quarter drops of Brazil economy. See the Lost Decade triggered by P. Valcker fleecing, the years of hyper inflation as sorcerers apprentices applied lousy text book macro-economic policies as they were for real. The importation of the effects of other crisis, as Russia, Asia, the 911...

To: THE ANT who wrote (51048)	6/9/2009 4:28:16 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218730

Now the last drops: Otimists expected -1% e -2%, drop. Pessimists expected -2 e -4% GDP drop for Q1 2009 Real drop was -0.8 for Q1 2009. This and 3.6% drop of Q4 2008 already old story. Now start to go into positive territory and leave this contagion behind. I am replacing my 9 year old gasoline car for a flex car to help Mantega's the economy. Brazil's Economy Falls Into Recession, But Signals Recovery RIO DE JANEIRO (Dow Jones)--Brazil's once-booming economy slipped into recession in the first quarter, but there are already signs of a nascent recovery that should build throughout the rest of 2009. "What we will see in the second quarter and third quarter will be a gradual improvement," said Finance Minister Guido Mantega on Tuesday. "I believe that in the second quarter we will have positive gross domestic product growth compared with the first quarter, but it will be modest." Brazil's economic growth will then accelerate in the third and fourth quarters, Mantega said. Signs of recovery in Brazil's industrial sector and strong domestic demand will lead the breakout fromthe country's first recession since 2003, analysts said. Brazil's GDP shrank 1.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, and contracted 0.8% compared with the fourth , according to data released Tuesday by the country's statistics institute. The first-quarter result combined with the fourth quarter's 3.6% decline from the third quarter to push Brazil into the technical definition of a recession: two-consecutive quarters of falling GDP. But the slide in GDP was less than expected by analysts, with median estimates of a 2.25% decline projected by 14 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires. "GDP came in a little better than we expected, both in the year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter comparisons," said Silvio Campos Neto, chief economist at Sao Paulo-based Banco Schahin. Analysts pointed to resilience in family consumption, as well as strong growth in the service sector that offset declines in industrial output. Family consumption totaled 444 billion Brazilian reals ($229 billion) in the first quarter, up 6.2% year-on-year and down 0.9% from the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Brazil's service sector was the lone segment of the economy to show growth in the first quarter, rising 1.7% versus the same quarter of 2008. "The domestic side helped quite a bit despite the strong decline in industrial activity," Banco Schahin's Campos said. Brazil's industry plummeted 9.3% year-on-year in the first quarter. While the first-quarter GDP figures were better than expected, Finance Minister Mantega said the government will continue to work on stimulating the economy. "What is needed is more monetary and fiscal initiatives, and the actions of the government need to continue with additional measures to increase credit and reduce financing costs. That means public banks must work more toward reducing spreads," Mantega said. Mantega's comments confirmed analysts' expectations for additional rate cuts by the Brazilian Central Bank. The bank's Copom rate-setting panel meets Wednesday, with the market consensus forecasting a 75-basis-point cut to the Selic reference rate. So far this year, the bank has slashed 350 basis points off the benchmark Selic rate. That's put the Selic at 10.25%, the lowest level since the reference rate's inception in 1999. While analysts and government officials agree that Latin America's largest economy will exit the recent downturn in short order, there remain opposing views about overall GDP performance this year. Analysts and economists polled by the central bank said this week that Brazil's GDP will likely contract 0.71% in 2009. But Mantega maintained government expectations for 1.0% growth this year. "This result represents old data. We're already nearing the end of the second quarter and we need to look ahead," Mantega said. "The economy is showing a capacity for recovery.... Gradually we'll recover the growth rates seen last year." -By Jeff Fick, Dow Jones Newswires; 55-21-2586-6085; Jeff.Fick@dowjones.com (Rogerio Jelmayer in Sao Paulo and Gerald Jeffris in Brasilia contributed to this report.)