Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (121511)	6/8/2009 10:49:20 PM
From: edward miller	Respond to of 206195

Bingo, per Zero Hedge: zerohedge.blogspot.com "The house of Dimon doesn't even care anymore that it SPY "micromanagement" looks like daylight rape and murder in central park. Can the Fed/Jim Simons please just say what the FV for the S&P500 is so we can just fast forward to there?"

To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (121511)	6/8/2009 11:29:31 PM
From: axial	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206195

Yeah, that's where research is taking me. Starting last fall, what we saw was systematic removal of players outside the regulatory domain. Now, they're back - and again supply, demand, prices and valuations are being distorted by non-productive financial intermediation. I couldn't express it better than Vi, here: "It's printing against a black hole of collapsing debt, and printing now has the upper hand. These markets have gone up from 2002-2007 because of financial derivative bubble, They crashed hard because it collapsed. Now derivatives were finally reliquified like in 2002-2003, only with a whole lot more cash, so we'll have a lot of inflation. If they keep doing it (and the derivative pyramid requires it; it's a Ponzi scheme of epic proportions), hyperinflation. In reality there has been no bull market in 2002-2007, the real economy outside Ponzi finance was not doing well, but that trend was masked by declining purchasing power of the dollar. The explanation is very simple - newly printed money goes into the market, in part exiting the treasury bonds, the market goes up." Message 25701232 --- Tomorrow, the effect of interest rate changes will be interesting. Bernanke's plan is in trouble, and the effect on markets could be negative. --- "As a small fry, the thing that scares me most is the possibility that players taking huge positions may do an about-face, causing big price drops and volatility... That's what I think is happening here; based on fundamentals, I'm waiting for someone to pull the rug out. I just don't trust what I'm seeing." Message 25652290 Jim

To: Fiscally Conservative who wrote (121511)	6/9/2009 1:03:41 AM
From: axial	Respond to of 206195

"These new investors are not funding a pyramid per se, but they are helping to fund storage. That is to say, with global demand in the doldrums, the contango will persist. And, as long as it lasts, traders will continue to front-run the rolls, which in turn will exacerbate the contango, which will then incentivize storage builds further, which will then ultimately weigh..." Is the USO Oil Fund "like a Pyramid Scheme?" "Should a bank guaranteed by public funds and the FDIC be active operators in speculative markets? Or should they be confined to the more conservative realms of commercial banks as they were under the Glass - Steagall regime?" USO: A Self-Propelled Pyramid? - Financial Times USO Oil Fund or Just a Pyramid Scheme? Stockmaster.com USO Oil Fund: All of the Drop and Some of the Gain - Phil's Stock World "If one of these NYMEX traders happens to be Goldman Sachs and, 3 days before USO is forced to roll their contracts, they put out a call raising their prediction for the price of oil by 30%, they can front-run that trade against the $3Bn worth of retail suckers sitting in USO and make $2 a barrel ($1 for July and $1 for August) on 100M barrels in just a few day. The NYMEX sharks can do this every month like clockwork and it’s not just USO as there is DIG and DUG and USL and DBC and ultra short ETFs (don’t even get me started on how they chew up your cash!) etc, etc…. " jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com Since valuations are being driven by futures, this is worth considering, IMO. If true, this is becoming a very dangerous game for retail investors, with potential effects on all oils. There must be some explanation for the disconnects were seeing; if not here, close by. Jim