i described the japan disease Message 16063875 (7/12/2001) "... Japan's job for the foreseeable future is to surrender its standard of living via deflation of assets and inflation of imported goodies via devaluation; capital and manufacturing outflows; capital, banking, insurance and pension losses.
Given the unnatural interest rate in Japan, dislocations have probably caused the formation of yet more bubbles ... just like a big ship that got hit by torpedos, the sinking takes awhile.
In a short sentence ... I am in no hurry to buy Japan, until DJIA and S&P blows up, and Nasdaq wimpers no more ...
then what was became more apparent to me and more useful Message 19139938 (8/15/2001) when countering one of many of maurice mq winn's errors
... We have barely, and only just, held back the determined barbarian attacks by implementing the widely anticipated, least imaginative, most drastic, irresponsibly sustained, and fastest successive series of FED rate cuts ever in history. Still, the economy and the markets do not improve. In the meantime, the balance sheets of the nations, states, municipalities, corporations and individuals continue to deteriorate, with no end in sight and no bottom in view.
The final three-pronged attack is being prepared against the center with grim efficiency and murderous determination, aided by on-line credit application and off-rocker mentality that believe in the unbelievable. The defenders are conditioned to trust that (a) there will be a V-shaped recovery tomorrow, now that it is no longer yesterday; (b) trade deficit does not matter; (c) debt overload does no harm; and (d) Uncle Greenspankie and Sam will make matters OK.
The final attack could involve a shock troop attack softening down the Dollar or a serious Debt explosion deep within a nation, a corporation or a even a fund. The follow-on attacks will most likely involve the simultaneous Deflationary ‘cratering’ of the real estate funding bubble and the final bleeding of gushing hope from the quiescent population. The exact scenario does not even matter given the weakened state of the defending infrastructure and inadequate cash and FED rate ammunition supply.
Any brightening of hope in the interim is just a fatally toxic fantasy wrapped in shimmering hope tied with comforting propaganda presented on a platter of official deceit. Swallow the fantasy, financial suicide results.
Now, should the cataclysm be unobstructed, a new dawn may arrive sooner. We must lead the village idiots to the volcanic abyss of Inflation or the black hole of Deflation, to be sacrificed to the gods of work, thrift, family and savings. I am being optimistic and am of course assuming that all the market noise and propaganda smoke is not in fact camouflaging an inflection point connecting Silicon Glory to an as yet unknown “next abracadabra”, as the Rust Belt was once transformed into Silicon Glory but accompanied by much dying anguish and birthing pain.
I could be wrong about everything, even about the fact that I was ever born, and in my saner moments, I hope I am wrong. I hope tomorrow is not The Day, and that all speculators will have an opportunity to seek redemption and change their ways towards the gods of work, thrift, family, and knowledge, and forsake the idol of effortless wealth.
You know humans as well as I do, if not better, and so you can guess at the odds of J6P awakening from his dream walk in time, before he falls down the steps in Uncle Al’s temple. Hey, how about that, you do know … the myth and the fantasy ...
… <<Green$pan … having reduced the irrationally exuberant back to the daily grind … is boring but more productive than millions … guzzling champagne>>
Again, save yourself before it is too late. It is not too late now, because we are not even done with the prologue of the script yet. Your exuberance is lighting up this dark den of ours, as we patiently wait for the BBQ grill to reach a good searing temperature :0) ...
and the the same concept was more explicitly applied to team usa in Message 19324814 (9/20/2003) ... The whole world is in competitive money print-a-thon, and China can actually use the liquidity since it has a 300-year pent-up demand for infrastructure, and a NEED to fix the banking and social security systems. Of course, using monetary liquidity to wash away past sins will have a nasty eventual cost, but this perhaps is still better than the alternatives.
Globally, almost everyone will lose in this Professor BurnAndKaput’s game of monetary prostitution and Maestro Greensputin’s version of Last Man Financial Standing, whether via job loss, revenue decline, INFLATION of costs, DEFLATION of assets, and/or grinding of currencies against currencies ..."
i got lucky for converting to a gold faithful, because god is kind, even of the earlier edition bible's angry god :0)
in any case, august 15th 2001 was a particularly good time to get gold :0) Message 16244385
USD is not going to rise, given that it has not risen despite all the problems more visible all around us. I think GOLD will rise relative to goods, services and fiat markers, and I believe GOLD is effectively still purchasable at cost.
I think creditor Japan holds the key to whether or not we have global depression (yes, there, I am now using that D word, and we will no doubt be haggling over the precise definition of the word shortly); and debtor/consumer America holds the key to "how deep, for how long".
On count of three, the keys may be turned to full-on position, and we will be learning New-age Economics up close, on a Washington Intern work-study program.
Get your cute outfit ready, and do not bother to mend those clumsy obstructive buttons.
it was difficult to be more explicit :0) |
