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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (20754)	6/10/2009 4:38:14 AM
From: RockyBalboa	Respond to of 71456

Pound sold off a few pips after slightly more passive trade balance. Manufacturing and industry is off 13% Y/Y but slightly recovered 0.2% in April - still a very timid recovery. But traders are more focused on the upcoming US trade balance.

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (20754)	6/10/2009 6:59:11 AM
From: Real Man	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71456

This smells like we are on a verge of a Black Swan, so we must be careful. The catalyst? QE not working and becoming QT. Kinda like Peg break in normal currency crises. As we discussed this Spring, it was likely to happen, and it sure did. So far mortgage rates are still lower than last year. Rates are 100 bp above where the Fed wants them to be. If the bond keeps crashing from here, so will stocks. So far the correlations did NOT change, and let me emphasize that again for the bearish types -ggg- The "risk free" rates went up, but spreads declined, so for many borrowing costs are still lower. However, not by much at this point, and in some cases they are higher. If rates keep soaring, declining spreads won't help. It almost imperative they organize a stock market correction to bring down the rates and pump the dollar. We are seeing distribution - futures pump, and cash dump. I guess the banks want to sell stock at high prices to pay back TARP. -g-